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Hello. I must apologize for the long delay in posting to this site but we currently have a new and improved blog being developed! It will be available shortly and have many exciting new features. I want to wish you all a Happy Holiday and a very Happy and much more prosperous New Year for all of us! I will try and keep this site updated until the new one launches so please check back. Thank you,
Kevin Kerr
CNBC works to calm the nerves of weary investors, not sure if I helped or not?
I am not shocked at all about this story below, or about OPEC increasing cuts….The price will certainly head back up toward $90+ Read on… Also watch my interview below with Cavuto last week. I discuss this very subject of demand form China.
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Oil Rises More Than 4% as China Unveils Growth Support Package
By Gavin Evans
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Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil advanced more than 4 percent on speculation stimulus plans by China and other major economies may help sustain growth and demand for fuel.
China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, yesterday said it will spend 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) through 2010 to prop up the biggest contributor to global economic growth. Copper futures gained as much as 4.9 percent and gold also rose after China said it will increase spending on infrastructure and encourage investment in machinery.
“It’s a pretty big spending package they’ve announced,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. It will “definitely give the commodity markets a bit of a boost.”
Few 2009 Inputs Booked, According to Farm Journal Poll
11/7/2008
Sara Muri, Farm Journal Business & Crops Online Editor
With the current volatility in the agricultural markets, and increasing input costs, producers are
From Ag Web.com
leery about booking inputs too far into the future.
For this week’s Farm Journal Poll, viewers are asked:
Do you have your inputs booked for 2009?
Since Monday, Nov. 3, 39 respondents (59%) said they have not booked any inputs for 2009. Just under 40%, or 26 respondents, said they have booked some of their inputs. Only one survey-taker said he or she had booked all of his or her 2009 inputs.
How about you?
I sometimes wish I had a time machine, don’t we all. You could just hop in and fly back however far you wanted and correct all the mistakes you make, opportunities you missed, and figure out what happened to all those missing socks from the dryer. Yes, but alas we cannot. I was talking to my good buddy Neil Cavuto last night. He had just finished talking with Ron Paul about the latest bailout, the auto industry. He was pissed.
I mean, so am I. Look enough is enough. These companies were managed poorly before the economic debacle so why give them any money at all. sure we need the workers to keep their jobs but not necessarily the Mgmt. I mean $25 billion is a lot of money, if they want it then they should quit. I gotta tell ya, if it was me lending $5000 to a friend I would put some stipulations on it, like how he would pay it back, what it was for exaxctly, etc. Yet this money just gets handed over gratis. It’s crazy. So then Neil talked to me about oil and why $60 oil is bad, he thinks it could go to $10 and a return to the 1980’s. Not me.
If it were to do that we will be setting ourselves up for $300 oil in only a few years. Instead of not drilling now we should be even more aggressive. Anyway, you can watch the interview here.
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Crude Oil Rises in New York, Rebounding From Below $60 a Barrel
By Christian Schmollinger
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Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil rose, rebounding from below $60 a barrel in New York, on concern prices may have fallen too far, too fast.
Oil for December delivery climbed as much as 53 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $61.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $61.12 a barrel at 10:41 a.m. Singapore time.
The contract earlier fell to $59.97 a barrel, the lowest since March 22, 2007.
Wow 1.5 basis points and there may be more to come. The big cuts in rates in Europe gave a boost to the dollar which in turn is yet again pounding the commodities. Yawn. I am a patient guy, so let’s let it all get out of the system and then we can reboot the global economic engine and since prices have come off 60, 70, 80% on some commodities I don’t see a ton of downside from here. Meanwhile the next big play really may be infrastructure… Look for me on Fox Business with Neil Cavuto tonight Thursday at 6:20 pm est.
by StockJockey
Wednesday, November 05, 2008 - 2:48 am
“I would like to offer my congratulations to the new President-elect, but must ask…what have you done for me lately?
Bill Gross told us on the last day of June that President Obama had a $1 trillion deficit in his future, and the Keynesian policy response playbook has been dusted off in October. Keep your eye on the US dollar, and gird yourself as the infrastructure trade is discovered by people that tend not to think more than one chess move ahead:
President-elect Barack Obama may put spending on roads and bridges at the top of his agenda for stimulating U.S. economic growth.
“He’s identified infrastructure as one of the ways to strengthen the American economy,” Janet Kavinoky, transportation infrastructure director for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview. “So we would expect it to be on his list of actions both for the stimulus and longer term.”
Obama was elected yesterday amid a global credit crisis and with the U.S. in or heading into a recession that may be the deepest in more than 20 years. He promised during his campaign he would use infrastructure spending to create jobs.
“We’ll create 2 million jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads, schools and bridges,” Obama said in an Oct. 13 speech in Toledo, Ohio, where he outlined his plan for reviving the economy. Bloomberg
Bloomberg’s piece this morning is pretty predictable, and the stocks might catch an early morning bid. To chase or not to chase, that is the question, now that the (CAT-NYSE) is out of the bag. Cramer was pitching the stock on Mad Money yesterday, for various reasons. Will it be that easy to pick winners here?
Stocks such as Vulcan Materials (VMC-NYSE), Texas Industries (TXI-NYSE) and US Steel (X-NYSE) have rallied, give or take, six days in a row coming into the election. But moths are likely to come to the flame:
Obama, 47, has urged Congress to pass an economic stimulus bill immediately after the election. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, has said she wants spending on highways and other transportation infrastructure included in the next stimulus package…..The American Society of Civil Engineers says it would take $1.6 trillion over five years to bring U.S. infrastructure to “good’’ condition, excluding expansion costs.
Materials stocks (XLB-AMEX) have been the hottest thing on the street; the ducks will likely be quacking the remainder of the week, and somebody needs to feed them.
Chase them if you must, but remember that shaper traders are a few moves ahead of you. And after taking a peek at ArcelorMittal’s (MT-NYSE) guidance, the best sales in the steel stocks might have been already made.
Regardless, lock and load, it is a new era on the Street.”
Ok well the day is finally here….I voted right after I got off of TV this morning. I was called in early to Fox Business to talk to Charles Payne about what the election may mean for alternative energy.
Ok so after I got off the air I drove to my polling place here in CT and voted…. No I am not going to tell you for who…I will say though that I am really encouraged to see the long lines at the voting booth, it shows American’s care.
No matter who wins this election I think we should all feel blessed that we have the right and ability to vote and choose our leaders.
As far as commodities go, well we are seeing the boost I expected as the dollar falls and oil rallies strongly on the idea of an Obama victory.
Why is that?
Simple. OPEC is afraid of an Obama “conservation” presidency and will defend $60 strongly.
The weaker dollar is another big factor and that will help support many commodities. Meanwhile my e-mini S&P position in GCA is coming back strongly today.
On a final note, for those of you from my former publication (name withheld) some of you have written in and asked me about those positions…I did say I would track them and I will give you my opinion but clearly I no longer run that portfolio so this is just my opinion.
I will do that report in tomorrow’s blog when we see where the markets settle today and I can review those positions today. In the meantime, be sure to get out and vote! I was scheduled to be on CNBC tonight and may still be I am just waiting to hear so I will keep you posted if I am going to be on. Nice rallies in most of our positions today
Iowa Meatpacker Defaulted on Loan, Bank Says
By JULIA PRESTON
Published: November 1, 2008
A federal judge has appointed a temporary receiver for a kosher meatpacking company in Iowa after a bank said that the company had defaulted on a $35 million loan and that it had written $1.4 million in bad checks.
Related
Meatpacker Is Fined Nearly $10 Million (October 30, 2008)
The loan foreclosure against the company, Agriprocessors Inc., was the latest in a cascade of troubles that have come after nearly 400 illegal immigrant workers were arrested in a raid in May at its plant in Postville, Iowa. On Thursday, Sholom Rubashkin, the former chief executive, was arrested in Iowa on federal charges of conspiring to harbor illegal immigrants.
In a lawsuit filed Thursday in federal court in Cedar Rapids, First Bank Business Capital of St. Louis claimed that Agriprocessors had failed to maintain enough cash in designated bank accounts to stay current on the revolving loan it took out in 1999. The lawsuit was first reported Friday on the Web site of The Forward, a Jewish newspaper.
The suit also claims that Agriprocessors violated the loan terms by diverting nearly $1.4 million from First Bank accounts to another bank to issue payroll checks on Oct. 24. First Bank learned that those checks were returned for insufficient funds, the lawsuit says.
The suit says Agriprocessors had begun to fall behind on the revolving loan during the quarter that ended March 31, suggesting that its financial woes predated the raid, which decimated its workforce.
The bank asked the judge to appoint a receiver immediately, saying that a bank representative had been expelled from the Postville plant after a meeting on Thursday. The judge, Linda R. Reade of Federal District Court, appointed the temporary receiver late Friday and set a hearing for next Wednesday.
The bank reported that Agriprocessors owed $188,000 to an electrical company and warned that electricity to the plant could be shut off, causing “millions of dollars of fresh and frozen products” to spoil. The suit says millions of chickens “are in danger of starving to death if not fed.”
Aaron Rubashkin, the company’s owner and the father of Sholom, put up $2.2 million in collateral, in addition to some of the property at the huge Postville plant, and Sholom Rubashkin put up $1 million, the suit says.
Last week, Iowa authorities levied $10 million in fines against Agriprocessors for wage violations, and Aaron and Sholom Rubashkin are facing criminal charges for child labor violations.
Lawyers for the company could not be reached for comment.
