Well as our Fed leaders gather today and Wednesday we will get the play by play from the media, yawn.

Here’s my prediction: The Fed move is likely to have a strong statement on inflation and the concern for the dollar, but no rate increase. Truly, even if they voted for a “radical” .25 increase to shock the market, what are we really talking about. Nothing! Now, I am no economist, I am a trader. So I am the first to admit that my understanding of what is best for the economy may be a bit skewed.

Let’s face it, the job market is softening, business is scared of who will man the White House come next year and consumer confidence is on a cliff. Meanwhile, inflation is soaring, more mortgage resets are coming down the pike and heating oil prices this Winter are going to be obscene. Oh yeah, flooding in the Midwest will cause almost all categories of food to soar, corn is only the tip of the iceberg. Everything from cherries and dairy in Wisconsin to Cattle and soybeans in other Midwest states.

The meat market will also be decimated as feed costs become out of reach for most feedlots. Enjoy that $50 steak at Ruth Chris, it will cost you $100 next year.

I have followed the meat markets for many years and in all that time I have never experienced a better time to buy futures, cautiously. I wrote an article a few years back that seems like i could have written it yesterday. Here is an excerpt and you can click on the link if you want to view the entire story.

(Excerpt Below)

Few markets conjure up as many images from investors as the meat futures markets do. Some people will think of Old West cattle auctions, with cowboys and ranchers bidding on prized bulls. Others know the meat markets are just like any other market, though they still hold on to the notion that it’s exotic and full of risk.

And that’s just bull. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

Certainly meats are risky, the same as any market. But they’re also a vital market filled with many opportunities for your portfolio. Of course, you’re not likely to hear about them from your broker. The sad fact is, most analysts on Wall Street only know cattle as it’s served up to them at a Morton’s or Ruth’s Chris Steak House.

Essentially, meats are traded on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. And as I said, all trading is done much the same as any other commodity.

Of course, like all markets, meats have a very unique language. Traders concentrate on data that nobody else looks at.

Full Story Here>>

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/meatmarket.html

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So all we can do is wait and see how the markets react. Gold is firmer today as the dollar declines and the Euro finds some footing. Gold was only down about $15 yesterday, which these days is a normal range. Hell, when i started in the business in 1989 a $20 move in gold and $5-10 move in oil would have been unheard of. Crude is surging up $1.60 as I write this morning and it is likely on its way to $150 at this rate.

Let’s see dollar lower, oil higher….hmmmm Makes sense to me. Just like i said on CNBC yesterday , see video in yesterdays post below.

One last note, I bought a $100 crude put yesterday for around $500, I figured it is a good hedge and it gives me until September. By the way, I am still long cocoa and sugar, cocoa may be time to grab profits though, no reason to be greedy.

Next week is my birthday (41, ugh) so it will be an early B-day present. The it’s off to Vegas for FreedomFest 2008!

http://www.freedomfest.com/

—————Viva Las Vegas!

Hey, if you are anywhere near Vegas you must come by the conference or heck swing by the Bellagio and maybe we will meet in the lobby, who knows. Or if you can’t make the conference I am trying to set up a book signing off site of the conference too and will keep you posted.

Ok, check back later today as I am doing a mega RTA Mailbag right here on the blog, I have gotten tons of email so we can only answer a few in any issue and the rest I will do here, be sure to check back today and tomorrow!