Just a quick update to all our readers. I did not appear on Kudlow tonight due to them changing course this evening and they informed me late in the day. I may be on next week or from Las Vegas. Anyway, look for tons of email here this weekend and all the best! Happy 4th.

Meanwhile….All you sugar doubters….I told ya! Congrats to all of you who bought sugar on the low. Read On. KK

Brazil ethanol data drive 5% rise in sugar

By Robert Cookson

Published: July 1 2008 19:54 | Last updated: July 1 2008 19:54

Sugar hit its highest price in almost four months on Tuesday, rising almost 5 per cent on the day, after a report of Brazil’s converting more cane into ethanol biofuel.

The Unica industry association of Brazil said sugar production in the world’s top grower fell 14 per cent in the first five months of this year compared with the same period in 2007 – while Brazilian ethanol use more than doubled to 5bn litres.

It said: “With the forecast of more rains and cloudiness than last year, difficulties remain for us to reach production estimates.”

The news drove sugar for October delivery up 0.64 cents to 13.74 cents a pound on the Intercontinental Exchange, taking its gains this year to 26 per cent.

Peter de Clerk, an analyst at Czarnikow sugar brokers, said sugar was also benefiting from widespread enthusiasm for commodities as others asset classes suffered.

My recent interview with Traders Nation

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Jurojin Daily
July 2, 2008
CHART OF THE WEEK

The S&P 500 is in official bear market territory. Over the past 40-years US stocks have experienced seven bear markets. Here are some commonly agreed upon definitions:
“A prolonged period in which investment prices fall, accompanied by widespread pessimism.”
“Bear markets usually occur when the economy is in a recession and unemployment is high, or when inflation is rising quickly.”
“A price decline of 20% or more over at least a two-month period.”

Including intraday market highs and lows, the S&P 500 was by definition in a bear market as of March 17th of this year, breaching the -20% mark. With the market low of 1260 on yesterday, again the broad market benchmark was positioned 20% off its October 2007 highs.
DAILY ACTIVITY:
There was no actionable activity in the portfolio today. Please note most markets will close by 12:00P.M. tomorrow (July 4th) and all U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day.

Hold: October 2008 Sugar 15.00 calls (SBV8C15.00) @ 84 ($940.80) No Stop. Profit targets PT1=120 ($403.20); PT2=161 ($862.40) Sugar is technically breaking out and talk of the increasing demand and decreasing stocks have commodity funds taking new long positions. This option settled at 0.67. Hold

Hold: December Euro$ futures 97.50 call options (EDZ8 C97.50) @ 18.5 (Initial premium): $462.50 per contract) Stop: 0.0350 ticks (loss: $375 per contract) Profit-target: PT1=48.5 ticks ($750) This option was inactive today and settled at 0.0775. Hold

Hold: August 2008 Live Cattle (LCQ8) @ 103.85 (Initial margin: $1,080) Stop: 100.450 (Loss: $1360 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=107.25($1360) PT2=108.95 ($2040) Live cattle closed 67.5 ticks higher today. Support came from higher cash values as well a weak U.S. Dollar. August Cattle settled at 104.00. Hold

Hold: September 2008 Crude Oil 110 puts (CLU8P110) @ market No Stop: (Loss $1100 per contract) Profit-target: PT1=220 ($1100) This option lost 2 ticks today as Crude Oil rallied on lower inventory numbers. This option last traded at 0.65. Hold

Hold: Jan 2009 Orange Juice future (OJF9) @ 132.10 Initial margin: $1,890 Stop: 128.80 (loss: $495.00 per contract) Profit-targets: PT1=142.10 ($1500.00) Profit taking set on the Juice market today as its rallied to a 4 month high. Lots of talk of Citrus greening in Louisiana as well as California. This should prove to be supportive. January Juice settled last traded at 135.05. Hold

Stay Short: September Japanese yen (JYU8) @ 95.13 (Initial margin $3,375) Stop: 96.13 ($1,250 per contract) PT1: 93.63 ($1,875); PT2 93.13 ($2,500) The Yen sold off in early trade but then bounced back as the market tested the 200 day moving average and it held. The September Yen is currently trading unchanged on the day at 0.9472. Hold

UPDATED POSITIONS

Meet KEVIN KERR,
a member of the
Supreme Council of the Secret Order of Jurojin
in the Investment Cafe at FreedomFest
(July 10-12) in Las Vegas,
where the world’s great thinkers come together to talk, strategize, and socialize.

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So gee, let’s see…I have been screaming from the rooftops that in 2009 we would see a huge shortfall of cotton because of over planting of corn and soybeans and low cotton prices. Voila!

USDA just in with this “breaking news”

U.S. cotton acreage hits quarter-century low
From Mpls/Star Tribune
June 30, 2008

U.S. cotton acreage has hit its lowest level in 25 years as farmers have continued to shift to higher-priced corn and soybeans. The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in a report released Monday, estimated total cotton acreage at 9.25 million, down from 10.8 million acres last year and the lowest level since farmers seeded 7.9 million acres in 1983. For cotton to be competitive with corn and soybeans, the price would have to exceed $1 a pound, said Jess Barr, executive vice president of the Louisiana Cotton Producers Association. Late Monday morning, the December futures price was under 80 cents a pound.

The best part is cotton pulled back on the news….BUY EM!~ 77 bid for a 1000….Looks like Burlap will be the new haute couture in 2009.

Hey I just got this really nice e-mail from a subscriber…

Dear Kevin,

I’m SO mad at myself! I bought the 1600 Sugar Call and then watched it drop. When it was down to 3, COMMON SENSE told me to load up on them - but I’m new to trading and had cold feet. Last week when they were 11, I even talked to my broker and ended up NOT adding more sugar. Now I see sugar jump from 12 to 20+ OVERNIGHT!

I was DUMB and too dang cautious! So this a.m. I have just added 4 more 1600 calls at 27 or better. If I had not second guessed myself weeks ago and had bought at 3, I would have made a pretty nice little profit already. There’s no way I am going to set back any longer, watching this call move higher and kicking myself that I didn’t jump in for more calls when the price was lower.

You, Mr. Kerr, have NOT caused me a loss yet in the trades I have entered. I’ve doubled my money since October. Granted I started with a modest amount in my account and haven’t been able to enter every trade you’ve recommended. I truthfully set aside 1/2 of what I’ve made over the years playing Black Jack (my one vice) to gamble on your RTA. I have stewed, and simmered, and obsessed over every trade I’ve entered - just like a hand of cards. And it’s paying off!

Now that my little ‘gambling’ account is adding up, I’m able to enter all of the trades you recommend by reinvesting my earnings. I only wish my Roth and Traditional IRA’s and my 401k had done as well over the past six months as my RTA has! (My stockbroker advises that I have done better than most, but the stocks have still lost money.) True to your advertisement, right now commodities are where the money is.

I just wanted to send you a heartfelt THANK YOU! Wish me luck on the sugar, Sue R

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