A Tropical Storm Boomerang!

Listen Up all you RTA members…If you want to really know what to do with that OJ, from someone who has been trading it for twenty years rather than someone who is just guessing…Well you’ve come to the right place. Otherwise you can’t be sure who the comments are coming from over there anymore, most likely a broker….By the way did you buy back that short leg of the bean oil? I said in the last update here that I was doing it, and well some readers over there told me they weren’t suggesting it. Regardless, Bean oil and soybeans have been up huge the last two days so no matter what, it’s good news for us all even if you didn’t cover the short leg. Now here is the latest on FAY!

Fay Brings Gusty Winds and Heavy Rain to East-Central Florida
As of 7 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Fay is located at 27.5 north, 80.9 west, or 45 miles south-southwest of Melbourne, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Fay is moving north-northeast at 7 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward from the center of Fay up to 175 miles mostly to the northeast. The minimum central pressure of Fay is 986 millibars or 29.12 inches.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the east coast of Florida from north of Jupiter to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. Meanwhile, a hurricane watch is in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A tropical storm watch is also in effect from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, northward to the Savannah River.

Fay has caused wind gusts to 78 mph in Moore Haven over the western shore of Lake Okeechobee and wind gusts to 67 mph in Clewiston just southwest of Lake Okeechobee. Fay continues to be a fairly strong and well organized tropical storm even over land and has not shown signs of weakening. Therefore, we expect wind gusts to over 70 mph along and just northeast of Fay’s path into Tuesday evening. Those wind gusts will drop off after sunset but might still be over 60 mph, especially along the coast between Jupiter and Flagler Beach. The storm will bring heavy rain through tonight across the east -central portion of Florida then into the northeast part of the state on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, causing flash flooding. There is the potential for isolated tornadoes over eastern Florida into Tuesday evening. Tropical storm-force winds will continue to affect northeastern Florida Wednesday.

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This is from today’s GCA issue and is provided as a courtesy to Kevin’s former RTA and GRT subscribers. For more information on Global Commodities Alert and our two new trades, please visit www.kerralert.com

Kevin’s notes regarding RTA & GRT positions:

As I mentioned, for a while until my former trading services hopefully have new editors in place I will certainly give you my brief thoughts on those positions and make suggestions on what you may want to consider doing. I highly suggest though that you consult with your broker before taking any action on those positions, these are simply my thoughts:

Sugar is rallying nicely and yet, it was clearly the right thing to cover the October 2008 Sugar calls and move into 2009, great job. Just ride the sugar wave - it is up very strong again today.

Soybeans are rallying sharply, too, and taking bean oil along with them. I would consider covering the short leg of the bean oil spread. This carries with it increased premium and some other things to be careful of so absolutely consult your broker before doing this.

I am going to consider that this position will now be simply an outright long call and no longer a spread after today. Again, consult your broker for any questions on why I am doing this and what is involved.

Orange Juice is clearly finding some support on tropical storm Fay, but this storm looks as though it will do little harm. However, another storm is already ramping up behind it. The good news here is that the shorts in the OJ market, of which there are many, may start to run for cover, lifting prices. I am going to do nothing with these OJ calls for now and may even consider adding some down here on the cheap, but a closer strike price. Again, with all of these trades be sure to talk to your broker for more detailed advice.

Gold. Had anice recovery today and I would suggest simply holding this position or considering to buy back the short leg here too, although significant costs will be added.

There will be more free updates as often as nescessary!

A quick thank you note from Kevin:

I just want to thank some of my very good friends like Ken Packard at Daniels Trading, Bob Miller at Foremost, Charlie Nedoss at Peak, and of course James Mound at James Mound Trading Group. All of these brokers have been extremely helpful in letting their clients know about GCA and assisting them in getting set up over here, and for that I am very grateful indeed. Please ask your broker to let his or her clients know too as I am sure many people are trying to find out and slots are filling up fast. Thank you for your support.

Now let’s have a great trading week! Below is the calendar for this week’s reports, as provided by JMTG, for your own commodities calendar just contact them at 1-888-744-8866 or jmound@moundreport.com.

By the way you can catch me tonight on Glenn Beck!

Yours for Resource Wealth, Kevin Kerr

SCHEDULED REPORTS
Date
Reports
Expiration & Notice Dates
08/18
Mon
4:00 PM - Crop Progress

FN: Sep Cocoa(ICE)
LT: Aug LIBOR(CME)
Aug US T-Bill(CBT)
Aug Eurodollar(CME)
OE: Aug LIBOR Options(CME)
08/19
Tue
8:30 AM - Housing Starts & Permits(Jul)
8:30 AM - Core CPI & CPI(Jul)

08/20
Wed
10:35 AM - API & DOE Energy Stats

LT: Sep Crude Oil(NYM)
OE: Sep Platinum Options((NYM)

08/21
Thu
8:30 AM - USDA Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM - Initial Claims-Weekly
10:00 AM - Leading Indicators(Jul)
10:00 AM - Philadelphia Fed(Aug)
10:35 AM - EIA Gas Storage
4:30 PM - Money Supply
FN: Sep Coffee(ICE)

08/22
Fri
8:30 AM - Dairy Products Prices
8:30 AM - Livestock Slaughter
3:00 PM - Cold Storage
3:00 PM - Cattle On Feed
FN: Sep Crude Oil(NYM)
OE: Sep Wheat/Corn/Oats/Rice Options(CBT)
Sep US Bonds Options(CBT)
Sep Rough Rice Options(CBT)
Sep Soybeans Options(CBT)

Where to See Kevin Tonight!
Kevin will be a guest on Glenn Beck’s show on CNN tonight (Monday August 18, 2008) at 7pm, 9pm and Midnight ET

Tonight’s Topic: Energy crisis hypocrisy

When it comes to our energy crisis, Glenn thinks the Democrats in Congress and environmentalists have one thing in common…hypocrisy! He’ll tell you why tonight!

Disclaimer: Risk of loss exists in all trading. Futures Press, Inc., Kevin Kerr or its principles do not assume responsibility for errors or omissions that may occur in this report. It is the subscriber’s responsibility to verify all information through appropriate channels prior to executing any recommendations.

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I will have my first update on current positions in my old trading service like RTA, here Monday after 7am as the storm heads toward Florida. Clearly the action in the OJ trade tonight and tomorrow could be very well worth watching. I also stopped by CNN, CNBC, BNN and the WSJ to discuss the grain markets, oil etc. I will be posting all those clips shortly. Below is the one from MarketWatch Video. Be sure to check back for my trading update later so you are ready to go on Monday.

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Dear Friends,

I know that many changes are coming to light now and you are wondering why I left my former trading service and have formed Global Commodities Alert, the reasons are many and I think you will see, for the better.

Originally in my final Monday update I explained that I was leaving and that RTA will continue on, just without me. Since the change is rather immediate, it will now be published later so Agora can decide how best to handle the transition, completely understandable. I have been told it will happen this week by Agora and I am sure they will make a good decision for subscribers

In what form RTA will continue I do not know, Agora has not said yet, so I cannot answer that question. They will certainly let you know, but please give them a little time as they are trying to make the best decisions for what to do next.

I am sensitive to the fact that this is a sudden and fairly unexpected change for many of you and for that I’m sorry. Many of you are well aware however of the difficulties we have had because of the shear size of Agora’s RTA as well as my dilemma with the style of marketing. I will make no judgments here either way, there is no need.

What I will tell you is that I had no choice but to leave and the good news is that I have wanted to start a service like GCA for years, and best of all I own it so I can run it the way I want.

All I can say is that it has been my privilege and high honor to serve as your editor and trading guide these last 4 almost 5 years and I hope to continue to do so in the future. I hope we have grown to be friends and that all of you know that if I could have left a different way with more explanation I certainly would have, I simply was unable to do so, I hope you understand.

Now many of you have asked if I will be with GCA for a long time, the answer is yes absolutely. I own it, this is my business and all I want to do is run GCA and trade commodities, that’s it. I want it to be focused on the best customer service, the best technology, and the best trading available. That’s the GCA difference.

I have also instructed Futures Press to offer a significant discount for a short time only to all new subscribers (instead of $1,699 its just $949 per year), that price won’t last long thoguh and already is going up by a bit each day, so act fast. Remember, since GCA will be my only publication from now on I won’t be focusing on so many things and it will be the ONLY place to get my commodity options trades. Period.

www.kerralert.com

If you are a bit angry over the changes I do apologize, at least from my end. However those of you who have known me for all these years also know that I always tell it like it is and the fact is I am trying in every way I can to let people know what has happened and work with them to make a switch to GCA. In fact I will be talking about the remaining positions in my old portfolios on my blog regularly until those positions close, obviously with no obligation. It is my responsibility and my pleasure to do so.

I hope you will understand why I had and wanted to make the move. My biggest reason is to improve the service and to be able to get into more markets due to a smaller subscriber base, we are absolutely doing that with GCA, and I hope you will join me. If you would like more information please visit our interactive website at www.kerralert.com or call our offices and let them know you got my letter.

Yours for Resource Wealth in 2009,

Kevin Kerr

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A hearty welcome to you all!

If you didn’t catch the big news then scroll down and read yesterdays post. For those of you applying for membership in GCA our numbers are very limited and they will go fast but urge you to put your name on our wait list once we are full. As spaces open up we will add you one by one. I am strictly controlling the number of members and when it’s full, so I apologize to any of you who don’t get in immediately.

On another note, our website has a minor programming matter so international subscribers for now just enter California (CA) as your state and we will correct it, or our customer service team will be in touch with you. During regular US business hours they can be contacted by chat too.

Visit www.kerralert.com for all the info.

Ok so why is it so important and why am I insisting on a much smaller membership? Simple!

When I started with my other publications there was only about 5-600 people, now today for example my last publication has close to 9000 people, it’s completely unmanageable. As many of you experienced with me in early 2007, having so many people try to get into the options market is like trying to navigate the Titanic. My former publishers services are like big freighters, bulky and overloaded, people can see it coming a mile away.

versus a smaller service, which is like a speedboat. GCA is going to be the speedboat.

We can zip in and out of markets and not raise a lot of eyebrows. In addition many markets that were simply to thinly traded, like cattle and cocoa options, and others, will now be well within reach.

Customer service has always been paramount to me.

Being able to provide far fewer people with far better customer service and technology is why I designed GCA. Check us out and again once the memberships are all gone we will be keeping a waiting list for future openings. All the best

www.kerralert.com

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An Open Letter to my readers, traders and friends-

I want to officially announce my resignation, not only from Newscorp MarketWatch and Global Resources Trader but also as editor of Agora Financial’s Resource Trader Alert (RTA) effective last Friday.

Several factors came into play in making this decision and rather than get into them here I prefer to focus on my new publication, Global Commodities Alert (GCA), more on that in a moment.

One thing that I have had a real difficulty with for a very long time are the vast numbers of subscribers in RTA, the number is approaching 8500 I believe, far too many. So many markets are simply not able to be traded with that many people. Therefore in my new service I am strictly limiting it to a much smaller number of members… far, far less.

I know this means that we will fill up almost immediately and that many of you will not be able to join, I apologize for that. Once we are full we will however be keeping a very strict list and as openings are available we will let new members in one at a time. In addition we will be strictly controlling subscriptions with state of the art technology, so there will be no more problem with some rogue broker giving the alerts to all his or her clients. There are many other state of the art features too, you can check it out at www.kerralert.com

I have been trading for 20 years and doing newsletters for about 6 or 7 now and this newsletter is going to have all of the best things from all of those past newsletters.

Anyway, I will continue to follow the trades that I have had in my other services here as a courtesy because no matter what, I do care. You can check here anytime to get my opinion on those trades and stocks so no worries.

I will be updating this blog daily from now on with all new developments and trading thoughts. Stop by and visit us at www.kerralert.com, anytime. Yours for Resource Wealth, Kevin Kerr

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Change is almost always good, scary but good. Sometimes we choose it and other times is may be thrust upon us. Regardless, change happens.

Below is more or less my last column as an official MarketWatch Editor, I love MarketWatch but it has come time for me to leave Global Resources Trader. Four years ago I helped design, develop and edit GRT and I am very proud of all the work we have done together. I feel like a veteran having seen MarketWatch go from being owned by CBS, then bought out by Dow Jones, and then last year by Newscorp, certainly a lot of owners.

Anyway, I announced my resignation form marketwatch a few months ago and have been assisting in the transition. The publication will fold with my departure as the Managing Editors didn’t feel it could continue sucessfully if I left, I’m flattered. I will however continue to submit articles to MarketWatch and be quoted regularly as a contributing editor. I want to thank the entire MarketWatch family especially Craig Tolliver my editor, David Callaway Editor-in-Chief, and my favorite commodities reporter, Myra Picache, love ya myra.

MORE BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS COMING THIS WEEKEND, BE SURE TO CHECK BACK!

KEVIN KERR
Bottoms up
The upside of a down market

By Kevin Kerr, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EDT Aug. 4, 2008Comments: 6
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — August. It’s the worst month to trade commodities. The second is December.
In my 20-year career August and December are the two months I usually vacation. Quiet trading and fewer participants inevitably lead to thin and volatile markets. The old saying is “if there is nothing to do, do nothing” Good advice for August, especially.
So just because it looks like this is the bursting of the bubble for commodities, be careful. What looks like the end of the bull market to some may just very well be a normal correction in what has been a parabolic ride.

For the entire article go here…
www.marketwatch.com/newscommentary/tradingstrategies

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