Don’t forget about fundamentals

October 23rd, 2008

I have been a bit silent during all this carnage…That’s on purpose! Partly because as I moved from Estonia to Milan, then London all I heard was about the debacle America has caused. Panicking fund managers, redemptions everywhere, banks going under, dogs and cats living together….lol Enough. Let’s get back to trading, these markets are going to calm and when they do the demand will still be there, especially for energy. Grains too i my opinion. Here is a note from one of my road warriors that I got yesterday.

Dear Kevin,
Welcome home…I got in the crude trade at 115 points.

I talked to a couple of friends one and two states west of me and they are soaked. The crops not out of the fields may not come out. Lots of rain, and now, snow warnings. Illinois is supposed to get it on Thurs.-Fri.-Sat. I have my ark done—how about you???
The corn and bean numbers are very good on upper ground….60/70 on beans and 190/230 on corn. Some places more. BUT…the bottom ground that was under water a couple of weeks ago..YUCK. I watches a combine going through muddied beans and he might have been getting 30%.

Deer hunters are telling me that beans are so dry/brittle on a lot of bottom ground that their host farmer is telling them NOT to chase or retrieve shot/downed deer in the bean fields. Way too much damage to crops.

John
P.S. Kevin…good buddy–old pal….he-he…if you need a luggage porter on your next trip :) think of me…my passport is ready.

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Thanks John, as always….My best road warrior out with his boots on the ground for me.

I am not worried right now that this is the end for commodities as Mark Skousen and Dennis Gartman have stated…Heck here is his email to prove it.
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Dear Kevin,

Jim Rogers told me he’s convinced that the commodities bull market is not over, but Dennis Gartman and I think it is. What’s your view?

Best wishes, AEIOU,

Mark
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I feel that we moved way to quickly to the upside, too far too fast and now the result is a stunning collapse…However now back at these levels you would be a fool not to get long some of these commodities. Life rarely gives us second chances, this is one of them. Jim Rogers and I agree…Although, caution and tight risk mgmt are key. For more on that visit me at www.kerralert.com

Kerr Commodities Watch

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