After being married for 25 years, I took a look at my wife one day and said, “Honey, 25 years ago we had a cheap apartment, a cheap car, slept on a little sofa bed and watched a 10-inch black and white TV, but I got to sleep every night with a hot 25-year old babe.”

“Now we have a $500,000 home, a $45,000 car, a nice king-sized bed and a plasma screen TV, but I sleep with a 50-year old woman. It seems to me that you’re not holding up your side of things.”

My wife, being a very reasonable woman, told me to go out and find a hot 25-year old babe, and she would make sure that I could once again live in a cheap apartment, drive a cheap car, sleep on a little sofa bed and watch a 10-inch black and white TV.

Aren’t older women great? They really know how to solve a mid-life crisis.

Kevin discusses food prices with BNN here (click link)

http://watch.bnn.ca/headline/january-2009/headline-january-23-2009/

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Kevin discusses oil and gold here with CNBC’s Larry Kudlow

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1011412042

CNBC Reports VideoKeeping Your Money Safe
Assessing how to play the markets, with Debra Brede, DK Brede Investment Management; Kevin Kerr, Global Commodities Alert; Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital; Jerry Bowyer, syndicated columnist; and CNBC’s Larry Kudlow.
Last Update: Fri. Jan. 23 2009 | 1:00 S

And an interesting article from Bloomberg…
Global Food Prices Will Rise Again, U.K.’s Chatham House Says
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By Rudy Ruitenberg

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) — Food prices will likely rise again because of climate change, falling investment in oil production and water shortages, London-based research institute Chatham House said.

Competition for land and expanding demand caused by higher incomes and populations pose a “major challenge” for global food security, Alex Evans, a fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, wrote in a Chatham House report today.

“There is therefore a real risk of a ‘food crunch’ at some point in the future,” Evans said. “Food supply will have to grow by 50 percent by 2030 to meet projected demand but climate change, water scarcity and competition for land will make it much harder to achieve this demanding target.”

Food prices fell for a sixth consecutive month in December as cereals, dairy products and oils declined, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said this month. While prices peaked in June, they have advanced for six consecutive years.

“A return to high oil prices will also increase food prices, as more crops are converted into biofuels,” Evans said. Crops including corn and sugar can be converted into fuels.

Obama Effect-Revisited

Over the weekend we surmised the likelihood of a feel-good, relief-rally away from the anti-risk trade, and driven by the market catalyst called “perception of change.”

And…market participants appear to be reacting on cue.

As a trader, it’s always necessary to anticipate several steps ahead– to examine the current landscape for information on how the pieces might become a puzzle.

In our weekend piece, we had supportive evidence of vulnerable chart set-ups that suggested key markets that are core to the anti-risk trade, were all vulnerable to technical reversals. We were looking for a shift in sentiment and saw a likely catalyst in the new incoming US administration.

Here’s how it is playing out:

30-year bond futures: Vulnerability= Lower
We showed you a chart of the 30-year bonds– vulnerable to a technical breakdown of the 3-month trend higher on the back of safe-haven buying and Fed activity. When Monday trading opened on globex this trendline gave way. Look for a continuation of this corrective C wave to shoot for the 125 area.

Crude Oil: Vulnerability= Higher

Next we showed you a chart of crude oil. Crude, driven down 78% from its 2007 highs, was trading into a 11- year line of support and was forming a double bottom from the December lows. The chart has since put in a bullish outside range, a key reversal signal. If our feel-good, risk-embracing rally scenario holds, look for this descending trendline to break. Also, directly related to both risk appetite and stronger oil prices, the Mexican peso has met its 45% decline over the past six months with a triple top at the 14.30 level. As we mentioned in our weekend piece, with the dynamics in place for a “relief to all that is considered risky”, selling USD/MXN sets up nicely for a low risk/high reward trade with a stop above the highs.

and USD/MXN…

Commodities: Vulnerability= Higher
Finally, while a broad commodities retracement we pointed to is slower to become engaged, the wheels appear to be turning.

Russian Implosion
Russia has taken a $12 billion hit to its foreign exchange reserves since the last week of December-and a whopping 28% loss in its reserves since August of last year.

The Central Bank of Russia has devalued the ruble four of the last five days at a rate of 1% a day. The ruble is a managed float and the central bank has been allowing a more and more rapid depreciation since December.

Since the middle of December, the ruble has lost 18% of its value against the dollar-and a total of 39% from its post 1998 Russian financial crisis peak. After exhausting $6 billion of foreign currency reserves to defend the value of the ruble, speculation is that the bank will step away and let a market-driven devaluation take place. Goldman Sachs predicts another 14% decline is in the cards.

What’s the problem in Russia?

The largest net exporter of oil behind the Middle East, Russia has taken a 76% haircut in oil revenues due to the plunge in the price of crude. Equally as bad, as a former high growth emerging economy, the global aversion to risk meant foreign capital headed for the exit doors and fast– collapsing the Russian stock market 78% in just 5 months.

The exposure of European banks to Russian debt makes the ongoing problems in Russia a problem for the euro. The IMF estimates that exposure at $1.6 trillion – including Russia, Ukraine, the Balkans, and Central Europe.