Corn Planted Acreage Down 1 Percent from 2008
Soybean Acreage Up Slightly
All Wheat Acreage Down 7 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Down 7 Percent
Corn growers intend to plant 85.0 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2009, down 1 percent from last year as lower
corn prices and unstable input costs are discouraging some growers from planting corn. If realized, this will be the
second consecutive year-over-year decrease since 2007 but will still be the third largest acreage since 1949, behind
2007 and 2008. Expected acreage is down from last year in many States, however, producers in the 10 major cornproducing
States (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin)
collectively intend to plant 66.3 million acres, up slightly from the 66.1 million acres planted last year.
Soybean producers intend to plant 76.0 million acres in 2009, up slightly from last year. If realized, the U.S. planted
area would be the largest on record. Acreage increases of 100,000 acres or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa,
Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Ohio. The largest decreases are expected in
Missouri and South Dakota, both 150,000 acres less than 2008. If realized, the planted acreage in Kansas and New
York will be the largest on record, and the planted acreage in North Dakota will tie the previous record high.
All wheat planted area is estimated at 58.6 million acres, down 7 percent from 2008. The 2009 winter wheat planted
area, at 42.9 million acres, is 7 percent below last year but up 2 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about
30.9 million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.38 million acres are Soft Red Winter, and 3.65 million acres are White
Winter. Area planted to other spring wheat for 2009 is expected to total 13.3 million acres, down 6 percent from 2008.
Of this total, about 12.7 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat. The expected Durum planted area for 2009 is
2.45 million acres, down 10 percent from the previous year.
All cotton plantings for 2009 are expected to total 8.81 million acres, 7 percent below last year and the lowest since
1983. Upland area is expected to total 8.67 million acres, down 7 percent from last year. Growers intend to decrease
planted area in all States except Georgia, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. The largest percentage
declines are in Arkansas, California, Louisiana and Mississippi. Record low upland acreage is expected in Louisiana
and Mississippi. American-Pima cotton growers intend to plant 143,500 acres, down 18 percent from 2008. California
producers intend to plant 120,000 acres, down 23 percent from last year.

Full Report – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/ProsPlan/ProsPlan-03-31-2009.pdf

Grain Stocks – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/GraiStoc/GraiStoc-03-31-2009.pdf

Corn Stocks Up 1 Percent from March 2008
Soybean Stocks Down 9 Percent
All Wheat Stocks Up 46 Percent
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 6.96 billion bushels, up 1 percent from March 1, 2008.
Of the total stocks, 4.09 billion bushels are stored on farms, up 8 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm
stocks, at 2.87 billion bushels, are down 7 percent from a year ago. The December 2008 – February 2009
indicated disappearance is 3.12 billion bushels, compared with 3.42 billion bushels during the same period
last year.
Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, down 9 percent from
March 1, 2008. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 657 million bushels, up 11 percent from a
year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 645 million bushels, are down 23 percent from last March. Indicated
disappearance for the December 2008 – February 2009 quarter totaled 974 million bushels, up 5 percent from
the same period a year earlier.
All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2009 totaled 1.04 billion bushels, up 46 percent from a year
ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 280 million bushels, up 205 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks,
at 756 million bushels, are up 23 percent from a year ago. The December 2008 – February 2009 indicated
disappearance is 386 million bushels, down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Rice Stocks – http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/RiceStoc/RiceStoc-03-31-2009.pdf

By now you no doubt have heard the government discussion about “shovel ready” projects to stimulate the economy?

If you’re like me, you have no idea what that means other than it’s going to cost me more tax dollars?
Pulitzer Prize winning cartoonist Ramirez, Investor’s Business Daily, offers his version here. See the attached cartoon below. He nails it.

By now you no doubt have heard the government discussion about “shovel ready” projects to stimulate the economy?

If you’re like me, you have no idea what that means other than it’s going to cost me more tax dollars?
Pulitzer Prize winning cartoonist Ramirez, Investor’s Business Daily, offers his version here. See the attached cartoon below. He nails it.

By now you no doubt have heard the government discussion about “shovel ready” projects to stimulate the economy?

If you’re like me, you have no idea what that means other than it’s going to cost me more tax dollars?
Pulitzer Prize winning cartoonist Ramirez, Investor’s Business Daily, offers his version here. See the attached cartoon below. He nails it.

Oil Price Spike Coming! Oil Price Spike Coming!

Posted Mar 27, 2009 01:15pm EDT by Jay Yarow in Investing, Commodities, Recession
Related: OIH, XLE, XOM, CVX, BP

From The Business Insider, March 27, 2009:

Another group is warning that we are on a crash course towards oil shortages in the near future.

Today, it’s a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (via NYT), that said the drop in oil investment and production will cause a “powerful and long-lasting aftershock following the oil price collapse.”

When demand picks up again, there won’t be oil in place to support the expansion of the economy and we’ll probably see another spike in oil prices.

It’s just another alarm bell ringing on oil. The IEA warned in February that a lack of oil exploration would lead to a big spike in price once the economy gets going again. We said it again in March. Then Barclay’s using a technical trend analysis said oil would definitely hit $57 soon, and would probably go to $60. And, of course, T. Boone Pickens clangs the bell every opportunity he gets.

Earlier this week McKinsey released 150 page PDF detailing why oil would run right back to $150 unless we changed a few things. Mckinsey suggested that we implement government policies so we can reduce the demand for oil, as it will be more difficult to control supply than demand.

Some of their suggestions:

In light vehicles we can apply more stringent efficiency standards which would cut oil demand by 2 million barrels a day.
Increase building and industrial efficiency could save 6 million barrels a day.
Remove trade barriers to sugar-cane ethanol, could abate oil-demand. Along with that require all autos to be fuel-flexible so they can take advantage of biofuels.
Reverse the shift to diesel passenger vehicles will save .5 million barrels per day of diesel.
Substituting boiler fuels, could abate 8 million barrels a day.
We are skeptical of any plan that calls for an increased reliance on biofuels. Maybe the government should consider subsidising oil production? We’d like to see the public reaction to that idea. As of right now, crude oil for May delivery is at $53.33 a barrel on the NYMEX.

For more coverage, see The Business Insider.

By GUY CHAZAN

LONDON — The slowdown in investment in oil and gas production could lop off nearly eight million barrels a day of future oil supply growth, setting the stage for another big crude price surge in years to come, according to a new study.

The global credit crisis and falling oil prices have squeezed oil companies’ finances and forced many to cut capital spending and postpone projects. That could have big implications for supply when the global recession ends and demand for energy recovers, the report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates says.
[Oil photo] Associated Press

An oil platform seen at Maracaibo lake in Cabimas, Venezuela, in a 2005 photo.

CERA projected last summer, before the economic crisis set in, that world oil production capacity would rise to 109 million barrels a day by 2014 from the current 94.5 million barrels a day. It now says 7.6 million barrels a day — or slightly more than half of that increase — is “at risk” due to project deferrals or cancellations.

The report says that reduction in capacity is a “potentially powerful and long-lasting aftershock” following the oil-price slide of 2008, when within a few months crude fell from a record high of $147 a barrel. Crude-oil futures rose $1.57, or 3%, to settle at $54.34 a barrel Thursday.

“A price collapse of this magnitude really registers on the Richter scale, and its impact on levels of future investment will be felt for years,” CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin said in an interview.

The report comes amid ample evidence companies are scaling back on investment in costly projects that require a high oil price to be profitable, such as the oil sands of Canada or the ultra-deep waters off west Africa.

Middle East oil producers, hit by falling export revenue, have reined in spending plans. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says as many as 35 new projects in OPEC countries could now be delayed past 2013. Most Western oil companies say they are sticking to their investment plans but are slowing down some developments.

The slowdown is troubling the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based adviser to oil-consuming countries, which also has trimmed its forecast for supply growth. The agency’s deputy executive director, Richard Jones, told a conference in London this week that more than two million barrels a day of expected new oil production capacity looks likely to have been deferred for now.

“Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the downcycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases — possibly as early as this year,” he said.

CERA said it expects many new projects in Angola, Nigeria, the Gulf of Mexico, deepwater off Brazil, Canada’s oil sands and Venezuela’s hard-to-extract heavy oil to be postponed or canceled.

Write to Guy Chazan at guy.chazan@wsj.com

A look back at what was said in January

I have to say that so far, for me at least…Obama and his crew are the best administration yet. The stimulus marathon and free-wheeling payouts are absolutely inflationary and yesterdays move and follow through today show just how much concern about inflation there is. Meanwhile my article on oil a few weeks ago that I got tons of hate mail on was exactly right, crude is not going to $10, it’s going to at least $70 and will trade in a range and then eventually as the global economy moves up so will the crude. It’s so simple my 2 year old could trade this portfolio.

From Marketwatch
FUTURES MOVERS
Oil futures rally 6% as Fed’s plans raise optimism
By Polya Lesova & Moming Zhou, MarketWatch
Last update: 10:18 a.m. EDT March 19, 2009
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Oil futures rallied 6% Thursday to above $50 for the first time in more than two months after the Federal Reserve took extraordinary steps to lower borrowing costs, raising hopes for an economic recovery and for higher oil demand.
The Fed’s plan also raised inflation worries in the long term, leading the dollar slide and pushing up dollar-denominated commodities prices.
Crude oil for April delivery rose $2.86, or 6%, to $51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, the April contract, which expires on Friday, hit an intraday high of $52.25 a barrel. Oil hasn’t traded above $50 since early January.
Crude oil for May delivery, which drew higher trading volume, gained $2.82, or 5.8%, to $51.72 a barrel.
“Crude prices continued to rise, following renewed optimism among market participants amid yesterday’s announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve,” wrote Nimit Khamar, an analyst at Sucden Financial Research.
The Fed surprised the markets Wednesday and said that it will buy up to $300 billion in longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.
The central bank will also increase the size of its balance sheet by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year.
Also helping crude move higher, the dollar extended its weakness against major counterparts Thursday, a day after plunging sharply in the wake of the Fed’s announcement. See Currencies.
“Oil, as well as other strategic commodities, is rallying sharply as dollar denominated assets become cheaper for holders of other currencies,” wrote John Kilduff, an analyst at MF Globa.
The dollar index (DXY

) , a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, fell 1.2% to 83.241.
Weakness in the greenback boosted dollar-denominated commodities such as oil and gold. Gold futures soared $59.90, or 6.7%, to $948.90 an ounce.
Traders got some more grim news about the U.S. labor market Thursday.
The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits jumped by 185,000 to a record seasonally-adjusted 5.47 million in the week ending March 7, while new claims dipped by 12,000 to 646,000 in the week ending March 14, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
The four-week average of new claims rose by 3,750 to 654,750, the highest level in 26 years.
Also on the Nymex, April-reformulated gasoline rose 5.34 cents, or 3.9%, to $1.4194 a gallon and April heating oil gained 8.15 cents, or 6.5%, to $1.3455 a gallon.
April natural-gas futures rose 3.6 cents, or 1%, to $3.72 per million British thermal units.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will report data on natural gas supplies at 10:30 a.m. on Thursday. Analysts expect a reduction of between 22 billion cubic feet and 27 billion cubic feet in natural-gas storage inventories for the week ended March 13, according to a Platts survey.
Polya Lesova is a New York-based reporter for MarketWatch.
Moming Zhou is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.