A situation has developed in the tropics which will need to be watched through the weekend. A large area of convection over the western Caribbean is in a spot where tropical storms like to form this time of year.

The prime breeding zones for tropical storms in June are the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. Over these very warm seas, it doesn’t take much to trigger tropical development. The other prerequisites are strong convection and a favorable upper-level wind field. The central and eastern Atlantic typically does not activate until August.

The low pressure system of concern will run into the northern Yucatan this weekend then emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. In this location, the upper-level flow will be somewhat favorable for development, so we could have a tropical storm on our hands within the next 72 hours.

For now let’s figure about a 40 percent chance that something will come of this. AccuWeather.com will keep you posted.

Story by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.