From Agriculture Online
Fewer soybean acres? One firm says yes

6/26/2009, 4:14 PM CDT

Based on satellite imagery and other forms of “intelligence,” one firm says U.S. soybean acres will be lower than expected when USDA releases its June Acreage report on Tuesday.

Lanworth, an agricultural intelligence company, estimates lower-than-expected soybean acreage in advance of Tuesday’s USDA reports. After two years delivering timely and accurate acreage and production estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat, company officials say Lanworth’s satellite-enabled computer models are softening the market impact of the USDA’s periodic intentions, plantings and production reports.

This year, Lanworth officials say the company’s plantings estimate — one that suggests that the world soybean supply will remain very tight — runs counter to many analysts’ expectations of the the biggest soybean crop in history.
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“The world is running short on soybeans,” says Nick Kouchoukos, vice president of information services at Lanworth, in a company report. “As an independent and proven source for supply intelligence, our clients can account for supply constraints as they are determined, rather than waiting for the USDA’s estimates or trusting less scientific methodologies.”

Lanworth also assessed corn and spring wheat acreage. It estimated an increase in corn plantings consistent with its March report. Spring wheat plantings are down from last year, but up slightly from the intended plantings in all states.

Officials say the firm uses three elements to arrive at its projections: Real-time satellite feeds delivered twice daily, extensive field sampling and sophisticated computer models of soil conditions, farming practices, weather and many other factors.

Plus storms are possibly brewing in the tropics, pay attention to OJ!

Tropical weather as of Friday seemed to be heating up over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A tropical wave was triggering widespread showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and a broad swath of open water. Computer weather forecasts hinted that this weather system could become an important player over the Gulf of Mexico during the coming week.

Forward to Sunday and the picture is less clear. The tropical wave is still there triggering thunderstorms as its center shifts northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. What is lacking is obvious organization and any strong indication hinting at upcoming development on the part of computer forecast models.

In light of this, the tropical weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico north of the Yucatan will continue to bear watching during the early to midweek time frame. Significant development is still possible.

Whether or not a well-marked tropical weather system takes shape over the Gulf, some impact will be likely along the United States coast bordering the Gulf of Mexico late in the week. A shift to relatively unsettled weather having showers and thunderstorms will likely take place along much of the coast.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews