DJ SOFTS HIGHLIGHTS: Top Stories Of The Day
5:31 AM, July 31, 2009

TOP STORIES

=Reduction Looms For Brazil’s Main Cane Crop – Analysts

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–Wet weather threatens to reduce the size of the
2009-10 sugarcane crop in Brazil’s center south region, but crop specialists
are divided about how much lower production will be.

Fortis Ups 09-10 World Coffee Surplus To 14.86M Bags

LONDON (Dow Jones)–World 2009-10 (October-September) coffee production is
expected to exceed consumption by 14.86 million 60-kilogram bags, said Fortis
Bank in its monthly report Thursday.

SUGAR

=India Extends Raw Sugar Import Deadline To March 31

NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)–India’s federal government has extended a July 31
deadline for tax-free imports of raw sugar to March 31, 2010 and is allowing
white sugar imports by private trade, farm minister Sharad Pawar said in
parliament Friday.

Brazil Sugar Lineup Up At 50 Ships In Latest Week -Williams

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–The lineup of vessels expected to load sugar at
Brazilian ports in the days and weeks ahead rose by seven to 50 ships in the
week ended Wednesday, according to the Williams Brazil shipping agency.

ICE Sugar Review: Funds Drive Market To New 3 1/2-Year Highs

Raw sugar futures climbed to new 3 1/2-year highs Thursday, bolstered by
speculative fund buying amid bullish fundamentals and strong technical
purchases.

COCOA

Cocoa Quality Improves As Rain Subsides In SW Nigeria -Traders

IBADAN, Nigeria (Dow Jones)–Heavy and continuous rainfall has subsided in
Nigeria’s key southwestern cocoa belt and cocoa quality is improving, traders
said Thursday.

ICE Cocoa Review: Rallies On Spillover, Bullish Supply Ideas

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Spillover buying from rallying commodities and equities
pushed ICE Futures U.S. cocoa higher Thursday as outlooks for bullish 2009-10
fundamentals added support.

COFFEE

Honduras Oct 1-Jul 29 Coffee Exports Down 9.6% At 2.833M Bags

Honduran coffee exports from the beginning of the 2008-09 cycle Oct. 1
through July 29 were down 9.6% at 2,832,548 bags of 60 kilograms each, the
Honduran Coffee Institute, or Ihcafe, said Thursday, releasing the latest
figures for the current cycle.

Brazil Jul 1-29 GreenCoffeeExports At 1,564,228 Bags-Cecafe

SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–Brazilian green coffee exports for July 1-29 hit
1,564,228 60-kilogram bags, according to preliminary figures from the Brazilian
Green Coffee Exporters Council, or Cecafe.

ICE Coffee Review: Rises As Commodities, Equities Leap

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–Climbing equities and commodities markets pulled ICE
Futures U.S. arabica coffee higher Thursday as the weaker U.S. dollar added
support.

-By Michael Haddon, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9289;
michael.haddon@dowjones.com

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?storyId=161400786

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml?storyType=agriculture&storyId=161500142

The USDA said that China bought 1.8 million tons of U.S. soybeans for 2009-2010 and 120,000 tons for the current year. November soybeans jumped up 55 cents to $9.71, the highest close in three weeks.

The USDA said that, as of last week, 2008-2009 exports of:
Corn improved from down 30% to down 29% from a year ago.
Soybeans remained up 11% from a year ago.
Cotton remained up 3% from a year ago with one week remaining.

http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=152410

Hi all, my Thursday appearance on CNBC was moved to Friday at 11:20, all about oil! Thanks

Kevin Kerr IS on “The Call” CNBC today at 11:20 am to discuss oil short term and long outlook…plus earnings from big oil and others. Tune in LIVE today at 11:20am CNBC

Sugar prices head towards the sky
By Javier Blas in London
Published: July 28 2009 18:44 | Last updated: July 28 2009 18:44
function floatContent(){var paraNum = “5″ paraNum = paraNum – 1;var tb = document.getElementById(‘floating-con’);var nl = document.getElementById(‘floating-target’);if(tb.getElementsByTagName(“div”).length> 0){if (nl.getElementsByTagName(“p”).length>= paraNum){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName(“p”)[paraNum]);}else {if (nl.getElementsByTagName(“p”).length == 3){nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName(“p”)[2]);}else {nl.insertBefore(tb,nl.getElementsByTagName(“p”)[0]);}}}} The sugar market is watching the heavens as bad weather in Brazil and India, the world’s two largest producers, threatens crops and pushes prices skyward.

Traders and industry executives say, in rare agreement, that prices could hit a 28-year high – above 19.73 cents per pound – this year because of poor weather, steady consumption and low global inventories.

The price of has surged recently to a three-year high, with raw sugar at 18.5 cents per pound and white sugar at $485 a tonne on Tuesday.

“There is continued upside price risk, even from today’s elevated level,” says John Sheptor, chief executive of Imperial Sugar, one of the largest producers in the US. “Prices could move considerably higher,” he adds in an interview with the Financial Times.

This bullish sentiment has filtered beyond the usual players, bringing speculative investors to what is usually a dull market handled by merchant and brokerage houses. Traders say that raw sugar prices could surge above 20 cents per pound this year, with the most bullish dealers talking about a target of 25 cents. Meanwhile, white sugar in London could move above the key $500 a tonne mark.

The physical market will be at its tightest between November and April, traders say, and ahead of that period the market could see a relatively small correction. They forecast that the price peaks will be seen in the ICE March 2010 raw sugar contract, rather than in the current benchmark October contract. The March contract, at 19.5 cents, is already trading at a hefty premium above October.

Speculators are not only buying futures, but also call options – contracts that give holders the right to buy at a predetermined price and date – at a strike price as high as 30 cents, suggesting they expect explosive moves in prices.

Among the physical trading houses, dealers say that Cargill, the US giant, and Switzerland-based Glencore are among the most bullish.

The latest wave of buying has come after a poor start to the monsoon in India, with districts in the critical Uttar Pradesh state already suffering from drought. As a result, India’s sugar cane output is likely to drop in 2009-10. As the world’s largest consumer and second-largest producer, India’s output swings, which move the country back and forth from exporter to importer, are a key factor in prices.

Traders say India’s output, initially expected to rise to about 20m tonnes, could drop to 17m-18m tonnes, a small recovery from the disappointing level in 2008-09 of 15m tonnes.

Leonardo Bichara Rocha, an economist at the International Sugar Organisation in London, says that if the monsoon rains do not recover soon, he would not be surprised if India’s 2009-10 sugar output finally is “as low as in the current season” because cane planting has already dropped.

With local consumption above 22m tonnes, New Delhi will be forced to tap the global sugar market for the second season in a row to offset the domestic deficit and avoid a dangerous run down in inventories.

While India suffers from drought, in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter, the situation is just the opposite.

Dry and hot temperatures should be helping the sugar cane harvest in the centre-south of the country, but instead it is cold and raining. The wet weather is delaying the harvest and lowering the cane’s sucrose yield, which, in turn, will reduce potential raw sugar production.

Before the weather problems, Unica, Brazil’s sugar industry body, was expecting sugar output from the country’s centre-south region to reach 31.2m tonnes this season, but officials believe it could drop to about 30.5m tonnes.

Nicholas Snowdon, a soft commodities analyst with Barclays Capital, says that weather problems have laid the way for “a global deficit of historic proportions, thus offering a seemingly irrefutable fundamental case for strong price performance”.

While attention has focused on India and Brazil’s production problems, there are other supportive supply glitches elsewhere, including Russia, Pakistan, Thailand and Mexico, all helping to create a market deficit.

“Globally, sugar stocks are low and we can see the potential for a quite pronounced physical deficit in the first half of next year,” explains Desmond Monteith, portfolio manager at Czar+ sugar hedge fund.

Demand, meanwhile, is holding up better than expected. Mr Sheptor says global consumption is flat, a performance he considers good taking into account the economic crisis. “Sugar is a non-expensive source of calories,” he says. “Demand will hold.”

Whether consumers, particularly in relatively poor developing countries, will continue buying if prices reach for the sky, remains to be seen.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

PLUS Look for Kevin on the Kudlow Report tonight at 7:45pm est to discuss position limits and the CFTC

USDA: Crop conditions stable, widely varied
Yields ‘hard to predict with all the disparity,’ farmer says

Jeff Caldwell
Agriculture Online Multimedia Editor

7/20/2009, 4:00 PM CDT

0210USDA.jpg

Overall progress for the nation’s corn and soybean crops remains behind the normal pace by double digits. Despite the lag in development, conditions have stabilized in general, according to Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report.

As of Sunday, 67% of the nation’s soybean crop and 71% of the corn crop is in good to excellent condition, according to Monday’s report. These numbers, unchanged from a week ago, come despite overall corn development progress that’s 23% behind normal and an 18% lag in soybean blooming, Monday’s numbers show.

“Weather conditions have been viewed as generally favorable for both corn and soybeans,” says University of Illinois Extension ag economist Darrel Good. “Extreme heat has remained south and west of major production areas, with the Midwest experiencing generally below-normal temperatures in July. Moisture concerns are minimal. Overall crop condition ratings are relatively high.”

Courtesy of Agriculture Online

Foliar diseases threatening corn unlike anything in the past

Dave Mowitz

Successful Farming magazine Machinery Director

7/22/2009, 12:27 AM CDT

High humidity, scattered rain showers, overcast skies, and below-normal temperatures are brewing up a huge threat for corn in the form of disease, warns Tamra Jackson.

The University of Nebraska plant pathologist warns that diseases not normally seen on corn this time of year are rapidly forming and to such an extent that farmers need to be aggressively scouting their fields now to detect their onset. The weather conditions have already spawn a “rapid spread of gray leaf spot and common rust,” Jackson points out.

Jackson sounded the alarm on gray leaf spot last week. This week she warns farmers to be the look out other diseases and, in particular, common rust.

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Common rust is NOT the same as southern rust, which ravaged corn fields in some parts of the country in 2006 and 2007. Common rust occurs to some extent every but is normally not a major concern in western cornfield. “However, in 2008 when we experienced cooler than normal temperatures accompanied by frequent rainfall and high humidity, it became a major concern and was worse than in recent history in some parts of Nebraska,” Jackson adds.

Common rust prefers temperatures that are cooler (61 to 77 degrees F) than the optimal temperatures preferred by southern rust (77 to 82 degrees F), which is why we saw more common rust last year, and will likely see it increase in severity and incidence this week as long as conditions persist.

Although the spores of the common rust and southern rust pathogens may differ somewhat in color, this is not a reliable way to differentiate them. Instead, look on both leaf surfaces to determine where pustules and spores are being produced. If there are just as many (or almost as many) pustules on both the upper and lower leaf surfaces, then the disease is more likely common rust. However, if the disease is southern rust, most of the spores and pustules will be limited to only the upper leaf surface.

Jackson also warns of other disease on the the increase including:

* Physoderma Brown Spot. This disease can be easily confused with southern rust or other foliar diseases of corn. The pathogen causing this disease is Physoderma maydis, which requires free-standing moisture for its swimming spores to infect the leaf. Infection frequently occurs in the whorl, which can act as a cup and capture and hold rain/irrigation water for several hours, giving the spores time to infect the leaf. The alternating cycles of wet and dry that occur inside the whorl while the leaf is emerging eventually appear as bands of lesions across the leaf. These tan/brown lesions on the blade may be mistaken for other more severe diseases, such as southern rust.

* Goss’s Bacterial Wilt and Blight. This disease is caused by bacteria instead of fungi. Thus foliar fungicides are not expected to be effective controlling it, making disease identification critical for management and preventing unnecessary fungicide applications.

For more information about these and other disease and their control go to the University of Nebraska’s Plant Disease Central.