Good Morning. I hope you all had a fantastic Thanksgiving holiday or a nice weekend if you don’t celebrate Thanksgiving. Plenty of action last Friday as the markets reacted to the news that Dubai World, the large investment faction in Dubai, was requesting a 6 month stay of payments on their debt..Yikes. But was it really unexpected? I spoke to Charly Butcher of WOWO radio this morning..
It’s funny but it’s been about a year since I was over there last andI spoke to CNBC Arabiya in Dubai the last time and the topic of Dubai’s growth came up. The interview is in Arabic so unless you can speak it the interview may be a bit useless, but you can watch it here anyway.
I was in Abu Dhabi and Dubai a year ago or so speaking at a conference as well as in private meetings with bankers, investors and others.
Even back then the cracks were starting to show and just seeing the shear size and amount of growth as daunting. I will have a complete laundry list of just what kind of growth Dubai has experienced in today’s Commodity Confidential. If your not getting the Commodity Confidential please be sure to visit the front page of our website and sign up, Commodity Confidential is FREE so you have nothing to lose.
Now, we want to welcome Ms. Natashca Niffka, our new Senior Markets Strategist and Director of Business Development at KTI, Natascha shares some Monday morning thoughts and some great story links for you.
BY Natashca Niffka
Can Dubai be put in perspective?
MICHAEL SANTOLI from Barron’s on-line thinks so.
“Dubai was the global equivalent of the most profligate developer in Las Vegas succumbing to excess debt and outsized ambitions; its troubles simply were not a huge surprise.”
The sell of Merrill Lynch: a surprise.
To read the entire article:
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125935218906166855.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc
What does this mean to all business in general?
For the time being, it appears there will be a short term sell-off, not any different to the short-term outlook stated by Kevin Kerr weeks before the Dubai news came out.
Banks will continue their due diligence, and lending to small businesses will continue to be tough.
VIKAS BAJAJ and GRAHAM BOWLEY wrote in nytimes.com Sunday,
November 29, 2009
“Dubai’s problems could also be a boon for some emerging economies, like India, Brazil and China, that are not heavily indebted to overseas investors and which have large populations that are buying more goods and services. Investors have been pouring billions of dollars into those countries in recent months and are likely to increase their allotment to them as they shift away from financially troubled countries.”
Brazil’s recent strength is no new news and India’s already been gobbling up gold reserves well before the Thanksgiving Holiday.
To read the entire article:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/business/global/30dubai.html?_r=1&hp
For Kerr Trading International, I am Natashca Niffka. Thoughts, opinions? I would love to hear them. Drop me a note at nnn@kerrcommoditieswatch.com
Meanwhile…I spoke to Dunstan Prial over at Fox business on Friday. Read On.
Cooler Heads Should Prevail in Dubai Debt Mess
By Dunstan Prial
FOXBusiness
The revelation of Dubai’s debt mess rattled already easily rattled U.S. markets on Friday, dropping as it did into a news vacuum on a traditionally slow trading day.
The announcement wasn’t entirely unexpected, however, and many traders and analysts believe global markets are prepared to digest the news calmly once some perspective is applied.
“I believe people did see this coming and I think come Monday it will level out a bit. Already, commodities crushed over night have come back,” said Kevin Kerr, a commodities analyst with Kerr Trading International.
In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial average was down as much as 230 points early Friday, but recovered about 80 points to end the session only154 points lower.
Late Wednesday, Dubai sought to defer for at least six months at least some of $60 billion owed to creditors by Dubai World, the emirate’s chief investment arm. Investors are clearly worried that a default by a government investment company in Dubai could have a ripple effect in global markets, one that could thwart the fledgling recovery from the worst financial crisis in decades.
But Kerr said doubts have existed for years toward what he described as Dubai’s “excessive overbuilding” and an apparent “if we build it they will come” attitude on the part of the Middle Eastern emirate’s leaders.
Kerr said he expects the government of Dubai to intervene and prevent a default of the debt.
That seems to be the case. Late Thursday, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, the chairman of Dubai’s Supreme Fiscal Committee, stressed that the announcement was “carefully planned” and aimed at taking decisive action.
“Ahmed’s statement, issued late Thursday, came a day after the Dubai government announced a restructuring of Dubai World and said it would ask creditors to delay debt repayment until at least May. The announcement came Wednesday, on the eve of a three-day Islamic holiday, apparently aimed at blunting the impact of the move in the region.
Our intervention in Dubai World was carefully planned,” Ahmed said in the statement. “The government is spearheading the restructuring of this commercial operation in the full knowledge of how the markets would react.”
Still, the initial announcement raised fears that if an investment entity in an oil rich country like Dubai is having trouble paying it debts, it could happen anywhere, and world markets responded accordingly.
Oil prices dropped near $74 a barrel in Asia on Friday as investors curtailed their risky bets on commodities amid uncertainty over the extent of Dubai’s financial woes. And Asian stocks slumped for a second day. European stock markets appeared to be stabilizing, meanwhile, after a heavy sell-off a day earlier that saw bank shares take a pummeling over possible exposure to Dubai debt.
Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, explained the short-term fallout: “It’s not Dubai, it’s Dubai’s impact on the U.S. dollar,” he said.
On Thursday and in early trading Friday, investors feared that European banks which lent money to Dubai World might be on the hook for billions of dollars. That combined with fears that “there are other ‘Dubai’s’ possibly out there” led investors who had recently embraced riskier investment to dump those positions, according to Kloza.
Consequently, the dollar jumped and crude oil fell by more than $5 a barrel.
There’s “still plenty of worry, but the panic for now has been arrested,” said Kloza. “No one was really selling oil because of Dubai — they were selling oil because they had long commodities/short dollar positions and were getting hammered.”
Other analysts noted that the situation in Dubai had similarities to the events in Thailand in 1997 that led to the Asian financial crisis.
“Dubai was a carbon copy of Thailand’s disastrous foray as an ‘international financial center’ in the 1990s,” said Paul Schulte with Nomura Securities in Hong Kong in a note. “Happily, the U.A.E. has oil. Thailand did not.”
The big question is whether Dubai’s oil-rich sister kingdom Abu Dhabi will come to the rescue of Dubai.
Both kingdoms are part of the United Arab Emirates, a nation comprised of seven closely-linked city-states. Sources close to the Abu Dhabi’s government told Dow Jones Newswires that it is unlikely that Abu Dhabi would allow Dubai to default on its debt as it would damage the reputation of the U.A.E. internationally and economically.
Worries about bad debt remain fresh in investors’ minds after the collapse of the U.S. brokerage Lehman Brothers in September last year pushed the world overnight deeper into recession as banks halted lending on fears of a domino effect of bad loans.
Investors are being forced to ask whether the troubles in Dubai will usher in a new period of financial instability and put in danger an eight-month rally in the stock market.
At the very least, it will lead U.S. fiscal leaders to continue their policies of low interest rates and “easy money” said Axel Merk, manager of the $400 million Merk Hard Currency Fund and author of the recently published book “Sustainable Wealth”.
“It shows that this is not a clear recovery. Things are more complex than that,” he said. “The Fed will keep interest rates low and continue to print money because there are still a lot of issues out there.”
Obama Finds Legal Way Around The 2nd. Amendment and Uses It.
If This Passes, There Will Be WAR!
Wed Oct 14, 2009 11:56pm EDT Reuters News Service
The Full Article Here
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE59E0Q920091015
Subject: Obama Takes First Step in Banning All Firearms
On Wednesday Obama Took the First Major Step in a Plan to Ban All Firearms in the United States
On Wednesday the Obama administration took its first major step in a plan to ban all firearms in the United States . The Obama administration intends to force gun control and a complete ban on all weapons for US citizens through the signing of international treaties with foreign nations. By signing international treaties on gun control, the Obama administration can use the US State Department to bypass the normal legislative process in Congress. Once the US Government signs these international treaties, all US citizens will be subject to those gun laws created by foreign governments. These are laws that have been developed and promoted by organizations such as the United Nations and individuals such as George Soros and Michael Bloomberg. The laws are designed and intended to lead to the complete ban and confiscation of all firearms.
The Obama administration is attempting to use tactics and methods of gun control that will inflict major damage to our 2nd Amendment before US citizens even understand what has happened. Obama can appear before the public and tell them that he does not intend to pursue any legislation (in the United States) that will lead to new gun control laws, while cloaked in secrecy, his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton is committing the US to international treaties and foreign gun control laws. Does that mean Obama is telling the truth? What it means is that there will be no publicized gun control debates in the media or votes in Congress. We will wake up one morning and find that the United States has signed a treaty that prohibits firearm and ammunition manufacturers from selling to the public. We will wake up another morning and find that the US has signed a treaty that prohibits any transfer of firearm ownership. And then, we will wake up yet another morning and find that the US has signed a treaty that requires US citizens to deliver any firearm they own to the local government collection and destruction center or face imprisonment.
This is not a joke nor a false warning. As sure as government health care will be forced on us by the Obama administration through whatever means necessary, so will gun control.
Read the Article
U.S. reverses stance on treaty to regulate arms trade
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States reversed policy on Wednesday and said it would back launching talks on a treaty to regulate arms sales as long as the talks operated by consensus, a stance critics said gave every nation a veto.
The decision, announced in a statement released by the U.S. State Department, overturns the position of former President George W. Bush’s administration, which had opposed such a treaty on the grounds that national controls were better.
The Full Article
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE59E0Q920091015
Please forward this message to others who may be concerned about the direction in which our country is headed.
Silence will lead us to Socialism.
Dubai crisis jolts markets, but early fears ease
Buzz up!88 votes
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AP – A man walks a securities firm in Hong Kong Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. Asian stock markets tumbled Friday …
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By STEVENSON JACOBS, AP Business Writer – 11 mins ago
NEW YORK – Dubai’s debt crisis rattled world financial markets Friday, raising concerns that some banks could further tighten lending and hamper the global economic recovery.
The possible spillover effects from Dubai fed fears that international banks could suffer big losses if the debt-laden emirate is forced to default. That sent stock and commodity markets tumbling in New York, London and Asia as investors flocked to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.
But earlier concerns that the crisis might trigger another major financial meltdown seemed to ease Friday after some analysts downplayed the risks for U.S. banks. U.S. stocks rebounded from their earlier lows as investors grew confident that the damage might be contained.
“I don’t think the collateral damage is going to be that great,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James. “People will dig into this over the weekend, but I think balance sheets have healed enough to withstand a shock like this.”
Still, the unfolding crisis in Dubai pointed to the vulnerability of the global economy despite recent signs of recovery.
A year after the global slump derailed Dubai’s explosive growth, the city-state’s main investment arm, Dubai World, revealed this week it was asking for at least a six-month delay on paying back its $60 billion debt. Major credit agencies responded by slashing debt ratings on Dubai’s state companies, saying they might consider the plan a default.
In recent years, Dubai has expanded with ambitious, eye-catching projects like the Gulf’s palm-shaped islands and the world’s tallest skyscraper in hopes of becoming a tourist friendly and cosmopolitan Middle Eastern metropolis. In the process, however, the state-backed networks nicknamed Dubai Inc. have racked up $80 billion in red ink, and the emirate may now need another bailout from its oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.
Following a rout in Europe, Asia’s stock markets tumbled Friday, while the dollar hit a fresh 14-year low against the yen as investors piled into currencies perceived as safer. Crude oil at one point fell more than 6 percent.
With Dubai World hard pressed to pay its bills, banks could take the biggest hit, analysts said.
Heavyweight London-based lenders HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered could face losses of $611 million and $177 million respectively, according to early estimates from analysts at Goldman Sachs. Both have substantial Middle East operations.
In Asia, Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, the country’s No. 3 bank, could be exposed to Dubai World’s indebted property arm to the tune of several hundred million dollars, according to a person familiar with the matter.
South Korea estimated the country’s financial institutions have just $88 million exposure. Construction firms from Japan, Australia and South Korea behind Dubai’s recent development boom also might be on the hook.
While most have the wherewithal to absorb any losses, Dubai’s troubles could lead banks to reevaluate and scale back their lending. That could make it more difficult for companies to borrow money and hold down a world economy still emerging from the throes of its deepest recession in decades, analysts said.
Equally unsettling for investors was the uncertainty over which companies were exposed and how much money they might actually lose. European banks alone have $87 billion at risk in the U.A.E.
“It touched investors’ sensitive nerves,” said Cai Junyi, an analyst for Shanghai Securities. “The world is watching whether that will have any substantial impact … Dubai World is just like a small window that might reflect another financial tsunami.”
Emerging markets in the Middle East and elsewhere have attracted massive amounts of capital in recent years amid investor enthusiasm for regions with rapid economic growth. This year, financial markets in Asia and Latin America have vastly outperformed ones in the U.S. and Europe. But Dubai’s woes could bring a temporary end to the promiscuous buying behind the boom, analysts said.
“I think it will make investors realize they need to be more discriminating about emerging markets,” said Arjuna Mahendran, head of Asian investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank in Singapore. “In the longer term we have no doubt that things are going to recover.”
HSBC declined to comment. Calls to Standard Chartered representatives were not returned.
Among other companies with Dubai ties, South Korean construction firms have about 40 projects there whose remaining work is valued at as much as $3 billion. South Korea’s government expected the problems to have minimal impact.
___
AP Researcher Bonnie Cao in Beijing and AP Business Writers Jeremiah Marquez in Hong Kong, Tim Paradis in New York, Kelly Olsen in Seoul and Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this report.
Although we are not related, we think just like brothers, and we agree about gold and the future of the dollar, 100% . Are you still not convinced that you need at least some gold or silver exposure in your overall portfolio? Up another $20 today already. If not, you’re missing out indeed….
1) As the world looks to “reflate” their economies, fiat currencies (dollar, euro etc) are being deliberately devalued by governments worldwide as a way to get out from massive debt burdens that were run up during “credit bubble” and continue at ever higher levels with “stimulus” plans. The US very much wants and needs a weaker dollar and low interest rates as deficits and unemployment continue to soar. Fiat currencies will likely continue to be aggressively devalued over the next decade.
2) China has $2 Trillion in Foreign Currency reserves (Fiat Currency) and only 2% in gold, vs. 75% for US and 10% worldwide average. With every .5% drop in the dollar, drops the value of China foreign currency reserves by $10 billion dollars (a move happening daily recently). If China wisely decides to increase its gold reserves and reduce it fiat currency exposure to even just the worldwide average, gold prices could move substantially higher and stay at higher price levels.
3) Scarcity Part One: The gold industry has not replaced gold reserves mined in over a decade, gold is simply too scarce. Scarcity means shortages on the near term horizon. Shortages in gold means there is not enough physical gold available to cover the massive quantities of gold that has been “lent”, “leased” or “pledged”. This situation will only be exasperated going forward opening the real possibility of a major gold short squeeze and possible price spike pushing gold to the stratosphere (and keeping it there).
4) Scarcity Part Two: Throughout history only 160,000 tons of gold has ever been mined. At today’s prices that equates to $4.9 trillion dollars vs $60 trillion in outstanding fiat currency. As fiat currency continues to be deliberately debased look for this price relationship to invert.
5) Scarcity Part Three: Repatriation. Hong Kong recently pulled all its gold holdings and deposits from London.Hong Kong wants to physically possess and control its gold and now does. Look for other countries to follow.
6) Deep Pockets Part One: Central banks, the deepest pockets of them all, are in the process of switching from net sellers of gold to net buyers, this is a major secular change and is likely to continue as other central banks look to follow suit diversify reserves away from heavy fiat currency exposure.
7) Deep Pockets Part Two: Major insurance companies have begun purchasing gold. Northwestern Mutual, considered a conservatively run yet savvy company, recently purchased $400 million worth of gold, its first purchase in 152 years, its CEO Edward Zore believes gold could increase five fold. Look for other insurance companies to follow.
8) Deep Pockets Part Three: Sovereign wealth funds, China, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have begun heavily investing in commodities world-wide to diversify out of Fiat Currency (dollar, euro). Look for more SWF to follow.
9) Deep Pockets Part Four: Respected and widely followed fund managers are publicly piling into gold and/or out of the dollar including John Paulson, Bill Gross, Paul Tudor Jones, Kyle Bass, David Einhorn, Paolo Pellegrini, John Burbank, Sri Kumar, David Rosenberg (economist,) John Hasenstab, Evy Hambro, Donald Coxe, John Brynjolfsson and David Tice. Look for other major mutual funds, hedge funds and pension funds to follow the leaders.
10) Traditional Gold hedgers (producers, miners etc) such as Barrick, the world’s largest gold company, are eliminating their hedge books…essentially taking the cap of the market…as gold supplies dry up producers are no longer locking in prices by selling massive quantities of futures contracts…this takes selling pressure off and indicates producers believe prices will be going much higher. Look for all producers to unwind their hedge books.
The world is changing rapidly. Old world powers, like the US, are making room on the stage for new world powers like China. Previous deep pockets are being displaced by new even deeper pockets: Central Banks. All of the above indicates much higher prices to come. The first movers in all the categories above (central banks, insurance companies, funds, sovereign wealth funds) will have the advantage of getting in at lower prices. Late movers will be forced to buy at higher prices. Regardless of who does what we are going higher.
Recommendation: If you do one trade in the next two years do this: Get long and stay long gold.
Commodities Are the New Reserve Currency!
WATCH HERE
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/november-2009/trading-day-november-17-2009/#clip236272
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