Confusing News on Sugar…Is it A Bumper Crop or Not?

04/01 05:43a CST DJ SOFTS HIGHLIGHTS: Top Stories Of The Day

TOP STORIES

India Farm Minister: 2010-11 Sugar Output May Exceed Demand
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)–India’s sugar output will exceed demand in the next
marketing year that begins October 1, the country’s food and agriculture
minister said Thursday, after the world’s largest consumer had a shortfall of
the sweetener for two straight years, forcing the country to import.

India 2010 Coffee Exports Likely Up To 200,000 Tons -Association
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)–India’s coffee exports are likely to rise about 14%
to around 200,000 metric tons this calendar year as global demand continues to
recover, a top industry executive said Thursday.

Costa Rica 09-10 Coffee Harvest -10% To Mar 15 To 1.445M Bags
Coffee production from Costa Rica’s 2009-10 harvest through March 15 was
down 10% to 1,444,756 (60-kilogram) bags, the Costa Rican Coffee Institute, or
Icafe, said Wednesday.

SUGAR

Brazil’s CS 2010-11 Cane Crush Seen At 595.9M Tons – Unica
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–Brazil’s main center-south sugarcane crush should
reach 595.9 million metric tons from the new 2010-11 crop season, the Sugarcane
Industries Association, or Unica, said Wednesday.

Brazil Sugar Trade At Standstill As International Prices Tumble
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–Brazil’s sugar trade practically slammed to a halt
Wednesday as bearish production outlooks drove down international prices.

Brazil’s Rising 2010-11 Sugar Output Within Expectations
SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–A rise of 19% in sugar output in Brazil’s main
center-south region is no surprise, industry participants said Wednesday.

Mexico 2009-10 Sugar Crop Now Seen Down 8.3% To 4.55M Tons
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)–Mexico’s 2009-10 sugar harvest is now forecast to
produce 4.55 metric tons of semi-refined standard sugar, an official at the
National Cane Sugar Growers Union said Wednesday.

India Allows Tax-Free Raw Sugar Imports To Bulk Consumers – Govt
NEW DELHI (Dow Jones)–India has allowed bulk consumers to import tax-free
raw sugar to meet their own needs, a government statement said Thursday.

Uganda Farmers To Resume Supplies To Kakira Saturday -Official
KAMPALA, Uganda (Dow Jones)-Outgrower sugar cane farmers will resume
supplying cane to Kakira Sugar Works on Saturday after a three-day boycott over
a land dispute, an industry official said.

Uganda Kakira Sugar Halves Output As Farmers Halt Cane Supply
KAMPALA, Uganda (Dow Jones)–Uganda’s outgrower sugarcane farmers have
halted supplies to Kakira Sugar Works Ltd., the country’s largest sugar
producer, in a dispute over land, forcing the company to halve daily output, a
company executive said Wednesday.

Uganda To Sell Its Stake Kinyara Sugar Works Next Year-Agency
KAMPALA Uganda (Dow Jones)–The Ugandan government will in 2011 sell its 49%
stake in Kinyara Sugar Works Ltd., the country’s second-largest sugar producer,
the state-run privatization unit said Thursday.

ICE Sugar Review: Falls As India’s Output Forecast Climbs
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–World sugar prices dropped Wednesday as
higher-than-expected Indian production estimates sparked selling.

COCOA

Ivory Coast Cocoa Arrivals To March 28 Seen Down 0.7% On Year
ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)–Arrivals of cocoa beans from Ivory Coast’s farms at the
ports in Oct. 1 to March 28, the first 26 weeks of the 2009-10 season, are seen
at 887,000 metric tons, down 0.7% on the 893,512 tons arrived in the same
period last season, according to industry estimates obtained Wednesday.

SW Cameroon Feb Cocoa Down At 88-95/100g, Good For Export
YAOUNDE, Cameroon (Dow Jones)–Cocoa produced in Cameroon’s chief
cocoa-growing belt of the South-West Region and exported through the Douala
port in February weighed 88-95 beans per 100 grams, compared with 90-95/100g in
January, quality controllers in Douala said Wednesday.

Ivory Coast March 22-31 Cocoa Price XOF930 A Kilogram – BCC
ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)–The average price paid for one kilogram of cocoa beans
at Ivory Coast’s farm gates in the period March 22-31 rose to 930 CFA francs
($1.87) a kilogram from XOF910 a kilogram in the week March 8-14, the most
recent previous week for which data were published by the BCC Coffee and Cocoa
Marketing Body.

Ivory Coast Oct-Feb Cocoa Bean Exports Up 11% On Year – Ports
ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)–Ivory Coast exported 599,270 metric tons of cocoa beans
between October 2009 and February 2010, the first five months of the 2009-10
season, up 60,961 tons, or 11% on the 538,309 tons shipped at the same point in
the preceding season, official port data showed Wednesday.

ICE Cocoa Review: Ends Little Changed;Traders Eye Ivorian Crop
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)–ICE Futures U.S. cocoa prices posted little change
Wednesday as the market consolidated while traders eyed production in Ivory
Coast.

COFFEE

Honduras 09-10 Coffee Exports To Mar 29 Up 42% At 1.674M Bags
Honduran coffee exports from Oct. 1, the start of the current 2009-10 crop
cycle, through March 29 rose 42% to 1,673,629 bags of 60 kilograms each, the
Honduran Coffee Institute, or Ihcafe, said Wednesday.

El Salvador ’09-10 Coffee Sales -3% To Mar 25 At 781,303 Bags
El Salvador’s coffee industry has logged in contracts for 781,303
(60-kilogram) bags of coffee in forward sales from the new 2009-10 crop to
March 25, the Salvadoran Coffee Council said in a report Wednesday.

Colombia January Rainfall Sharply Down In Southern Coffee Areas
BOGOTA (Dow Jones)–Colombian coffee areas in the country’s key southern
growing region suffered from sharply below normal rainfall in January,
Colombia’s National Coffee Research Center, Cenicafe, said Wednesday.

Ivory Coast Oct-Feb Robusta Coffee Exports Double On Year
ABIDJAN (Dow Jones)–Ivory Coast exports of robusta coffee in
October-February, the first five months of the 2009-10 season, more than
doubled on year to 46,236 metric tons, official port data showed Wednesday.

ICE Coffee Review: May Falls 2% In Technical Downdraft
Arabica May coffee futures fell 2% Wednesday as traders took profits off of
newly made 8 1/2-week highs and bearish traders sold amid weak chart signals.

Bloomberg
Sugar Output in India May Jump 26% as Rains Aid Crops (Update1)
March 31, 2010, 6:56 AM EDT
MORE FROM BUSINESSWEEK

Sugar ‘Crash’ Isn’t Over as Global Output Climbs, Analysts Say
White Sugar Has Longest Losing Streak in 2 1/2 Months on Prices
Sugar Falls to 7-Month Low in London, New York on Rising Supply
Indian Mills Seek White Sugar Tax to Curb ‘Dumping’ (Update1)
Brazil Sugar Mills ‘Pray’ for Prices Amid Record Crop Outlook
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(Adds comments in fourth paragraph.)
By Bibhudatta Pradhan
March 31 (Bloomberg) — Sugar output in India, the world’s biggest user, may jump as much as 26 percent this year as late rain improve cane yields in the nation’s biggest growing regions, a producers’ group said.
Output may total 18 million to 18.5 million metric tons in the year ending Sept. 30, compared with 14.7 million tons a year ago, Vinay Kumar, managing director of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd., told reporters. Production likely gained 27 percent to 16.7 million tons in the six months ending today, he said in New Delhi.
Increased output in India, the biggest grower after Brazil, may pare the need for imports, pressuring raw-sugar prices that are headed for the biggest quarterly drop in 25 years. Mills and traders in the Asian country have bought 4.5 million tons in the season started Oct. 1, almost twice the amount imported in the previous year, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association.
Yield has improved, particularly in Maharashtra, India’s biggest sugar-producing state, and planting of high-yielding cane varieties helped increased output, Kumar said.
Production in Maharashtra may be 6 million tons, up from an earlier estimate of less than 5 million tons, according to ISMA. Output in Uttar Pradesh, the second-biggest producer, may be 4.8 million tons, compared with 4.1 million tons estimated earlier, the producers’ group said.
Raw sugar for May delivery fell 1 percent to 17.69 cents a pound in after-hours trading on ICE Futures U.S. Prices reached a 29-year high on Feb. 1. Still, sugar has lost 34 percent this year and is headed for the biggest quarterly drop since 1985.
–With assistance from Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai. Editor: Ravil Shirodkar
To contact the reporter on this story: Bibhudatta Pradhan in New Delhi at bpradhan@bloomberg.net

Courtesy of the WSJ See link to full article below.

By STEPHANIE SIMON

DENVER—Farmers and ranchers across the West are bracing for a grasshopper infestation that could devastate millions of acres of crops and land used for grazing.

Over the coming weeks, federal officials say, grasshoppers will likely hatch in bigger numbers than any year since 1985. Hungry swarms caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage that year when they devoured corn, barley, alfalfa, beets—even fence posts and the paint off the sides of barns.

Read Full Article Here http://is.gd/b5aPe

Courtesy Agrimoney.com

Fortis upbeat on sugar, even as prices slump 7%

India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, is poised to come back to the market “with a vengeance”, Fortis Bank Nederland has said, lining up behind analysts optimistic over prices even as they slumped to a nine-month low.

The forecast came as analysts at FO Licht warned over the weak long-term prospects for the sugar price, which they said may fall to 10 cents a pound by October 2011.

While India has avoided revealing the size of its remaining sugar stocks, which it has eroded to maintain supplies in the face of a slump in domestic output, Fortis said it suspected they had been “eaten down effectively to zero”.

“By June we expect to see India return to the import market, with a vengeance,” the bank said, with other buyers, including China, also set to begin buying again after a pause to see how far the price rout would discount the sweetener.

There was “evidently scope for prices to recover in the second half of 2010 from where they are today”, if potentially falling next year, assuming a decent monsoon revives production in India, which is the world’s second ranked sugar producer.

Prices slump

However, the bank’s forecast that prices would “quite likely” find a floor at 17 cents a pound was proved wrong within moments of it being issued, as the market rout continued.

In New York, raw sugar for May delivery slumped 7.1% to 16.70 cents a pound, the lowest for a spot contract since June. It has now tumbled more than 45% from its 29-year high at the start of last month.

White sugar for May closed down 6.6% at $473.70 a tonne, an eight-month low.

The sell-off was being fuelled by technical factors, and in particular the movement of short-term moving averages below longer term peers, notably the 40-day line below the 100-day one, analysts said.

“This is no doubt encouraging further long liquidation as well as short selling from the funds and speculators, which is now driving prices way below even some of the most bearish expectations,” David Sadler at Sucden Financial Sugar said.

Production hopes

Separately, Stefan Uhlenbrock, senior commodity analyst at FO Licht, said India’s sugar production would recover to 25m-26m tonnes in 2010-11 from 17m-18m tonnes this year as prices, which remain high by historical levels, encourage farmers to plant.

Brazil, the world’s top producer, would see output rise to 40.5m tonnes, raw equivalent, from 36.2m tonnes this season.

While, in the short term, Egypt, India and Pakistan were poised to return to import markets, Mr Uhlenbrock said said he “could well imagine that [prices] fall to about 10 cents a pound” by the start of 2010-11.