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A closer look at the 2008 Crap, I mean Crop!
From My KerrTrade.com Road Warriors, AND AgWeb.com
6/24 - Saline County, Southern Illinois: Started replanting beans today hope to finish this week still have spraying to do, then hay. Guys are just starting wheat harvest haven’t heard about yields yet. Corn looks terrible beans are just now coming up. But we have a crop to nurse and hope for. My heart goes out to those that have lost their crops from the resent floods or droughts depending on which side of the belt you’re on. Good luck and God Bless!
6/24 - St. Clair County, Southwestern Illinois: After receiving 30 inches of rain since March 1, we finally got a welcome three tenths on Friday. I would put corn planting at 100 percent complete and beans at 90 percent complete. The corn looks good from the road but if you walk the fields you will see the stands are nothing to write home about. I am not complaining about any of my crops or how they look because I feel EXTREMELY FORTUNATE just to have mine in the ground. Wheat harvest began here on Saturday but I haven’t heard of any yields. The county has very few wheat acres even with the huge spike in prices we witnessed this past spring. We could use an inch of rain here as the corn is starting to curl in the late afternoon sun. The beans are just starting to poke through. My thoughts and prayers continue to go out to the folks dealing with the severe flooding and the folks dealing with the severe drought.
Now here is a special note from Bob Miller of Foremost trading on yesterday’s RTA sell order to grab up to 120% + profits on the November Soybeans, we will try again today, but here are Bob’s thoughts.
Exit Bean Spread. 06-24-08. Resource Trader Alert (RTA) Newsletter Trade update.
This email is for those who are Trading the RTA newsletter with us at Foremost Trading. Excuse the “bulk nature” of this email, however by this method I can let you know what has happened with the order(s) received from RTA newsletter.
Good evening RTA Traders.
Today we received this RTA alert which read…
Urgent Trading Alert – Sell All Soybean Spread
Action to take: Call your commodity options broker and say: “I want to SELL ALL of my November 2008 Soybean (SX8) 13/14 call spreads at 62 ($3,100) or better good till canceled (GTC)”
Although we placed the order to exit the Nov Bean 1300/1400 Call Spread order immediately, the top of the bean market had been made for the day we had no fill.
Beans opened firm and moved up for about 15 minutes, paused for a little sideways movement, and at about 10 AM (Central Time.) the exit alert arrived. Yesterday’s settlement was 62 ¾ on the spread. Today it settled at 61 3/8 down 1 3/8. Settlements do not always represent a true market price. The trading of the spread is the real price. All day long the bid/offer was a full cent on the spread and some of the time even more. Going into the end of the day the last bid/offer I received was 58/59. A full 4 cents off the 62 price the order was in at.
It is interesting to watch the change in this spread. With the Nov beans at 14.91 today you can see that this spread 1300/1400 call spread is deep in the money. With beans down 11 ¼ cents today the spread only lost 1 3/8. The high of the bean move was one week ago today. That day the bean futures settled at 15.53, and the spread was at 67 ¼. Today at 14.91 down 62 cents in one week the spread has lost less than 6 cents. I tell you this because even if we do not get a immediate rally we will not loose much on the spread unless the beans really drop a lot. Yes they could, but probably not too much and probably not too fast.
We will see what the next few sessions have in store for this spread. The order is in as a good till cancel.
Have a great evening,
Bob Miller
Foremost Trading LLC
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I am off to Vegas for FreedomFest July 9-12th, hope you can join us or at least come by the Bellagio to meet me and my staff, love to say Hi. www.freedomfest.com
Also, don’t forget to come to Vancouver for the Annual Agora Wealth Symposium. www.agorafinancial.com July 22nd-25th
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The crops for 2008 are going from bad to worse sodon’t be fooled by any USDA happy predictions. Sure the water is pulling back but in its wake it is leaving decimated crops, ruined fields and disease. Even corn that may look good from the road is just a mirage. The fact is that if you go up and look at the corn that is growing the yields are going to be awful. Now the worst part. HOT HOT HOT July temps are moving into the Midwest and the crop (both soybeans and corn) are simply not mature enough to handle it.
The crop will be toast, especially corn. Crop treatments have either not been put on or have washed away, and man are those expensive. But if they work they are they can save the crop. Many farmers simply cannot afford more treatments money is getting tight form all this re-spraying and planting.
I think this may be corns last big run before the bottom falls out and it is a good short into 2009. I am looking at grabbing up to %180 profits on corn options and then rolling into puts for 2009. Stay tuned. I am doing a mailbag (long overdue) here on the blog and it will be posted later today. Remember to register as a member of the blog and you can leave comments and post questions. Or just email them to me at kevinscottkerr@mac.com
And finally this form Investors Biz Daily.
Nuclear Hourglass
INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted 6/24/2008
WMD: Only last fall, the head of the U.N.’s nuclear “watchdog” said Iran would need three to eight years to acquire an atomic bomb. Now he says six months to a year. Is he dishonest or incompetent — or both?
see http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=299200015738105
for the complete editorial.
I vote for both myself….
have a great day!
June 26th, 2008 at 1:47 am
[...] A closer look at the 2008 Crap, I mean Crop! I would put corn planting at 100 percent complete and beans at 90 percent complete. The corn looks good from the road but if you walk the… [...]