Ok, this just in from Dubai. Here is my appearance a couple of weeks ago at CNBC in Dubai, I was asked to come by and talk about the agriculture markets while i was there. The interview is in Arabic.

The latest on the growing crop disaster for 2008!

Forget tractor sales, buy shares of boat stocks. Farmers will need boats to tend to their crops this year as the cold, wet Spring has set up the US crop for disaster. Last night’s crop progress report tells the tale. Still far behind compared to year over year numbers… Many farmers will have to completely re-plant.

A very costly and time consuming delay, and that’s if many can even afford to replant or can get the seed and fertilizer. Bottom line: Significantly lower yields, higher demand and much higher prices. Here is the skinny on the report from my friends at Dow Jones!

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–”The emergence of the U.S. corn crop remained well
behind average in the week ended Sunday, with very marginal progress made in
some of the top-producing states compared to the previous week, according to
the weekly progress report issued Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
U.S. soybean planting similarly lagged behind average, while emergence of
the crop paled in comparison to the five-year average, according to the USDA
report. The good-to-excellent condition rating for U.S. winter wheat remained
the same as last week while the good-to-excellent condition rating for U.S.
spring wheat rose above the five-year average.
“You’re going to have a lot of water left and a continuation of saturated
soils,” said Joel Karlin, sales manager and commodity sales coordinator for
Western Milling. “Things are not going to improve.”
Continued warm and wet weather is expected throughout the U.S. corn belt,
with windows of dryness lasting less than 48 hours, according to private
forecaster T-storm Weather.

Corn

The USDA said 74% of the U.S. corn crop was emerged, up from 52% last week
but down from the five-year average of 89%.
“You have two states that are very wet,” said Karlin, singling out the two
top producing states of Illinois and Iowa. “You need scuba gear to go out and
ride the tractor.”
In Illinois, 76% of the corn crop emerged, up from 62% last week but down
from the average of 95%.
In Iowa, 77% of the corn crop emerged, up from 54% last week but down from
the average of 93%.
“The crop is not off to a good start,” said Karlin. “Here we are, in June,
with 4.3 million acres of corn left to plant, and (approximately) 25% of the
crop hasn’t even come out of the ground yet.”
The USDA said 95% of the U.S. corn crop was planted, up from 88% last week
but down from the average of 98%. The USDA estimates that farmers will plant 86
million acres to corn this season.
Karlin expects the corn market to react accordingly to low rates of
emergence and continued wet weather.
“There is nothing in here to make the bears happy,” he said. “The
sluggishness is going to impact the planted acreage and the yield
expectations.”
The USDA said the good-to-excellent condition rating of the U.S. corn crop
was at 63%, which was within trade expectations. Traders had expected a
good-to-excellent rating of anywhere from 50%-65%.
“I’m not going to put a lot of credence into the first crop ratings of the
year,” said Karlin.

Soybean

The USDA said 69% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted, up from 52% last
week but down from the five-year average of 81%.
“They’re trying to get the corn in the ground based on the high prices,”
said Karlin. “They haven’t had time to switch the head on the combine to get
soybean planted.”
Some of the major soy-producing states are very far behind, he said.
“You can still plant corn into June,” said Karlin. “I think they’re going to
switch over (to soybeans) at the last minute.”
In Illinois, 57% of the soy crop was planted, compared to the average of
86%. In Iowa, 82% of the crop was planted, up from 72% last week but down from
the average of 92%.
The overall pace of progress fell below trade expectations. Traders had
expected anywhere from 70%-75% of the crop to be planted.
These are supportive numbers for Chicago Board of Trade soybean price action
in overnight trading and into Tuesday’s session, said Karlin.
The USDA said 32% of the U.S. soybean crop was emerged, up from 12% last
week but down from the average of 55%.

Winter Wheat

The good-to-excellent condition rating for U.S. winter wheat remained at
47%, the same as last week.
“It appears nationally U.S. winter wheat conditions improved during the
month of May and that should result in a higher yield estimate for the June
crop report,” said Karlin.
The USDA’s monthly crop report will be issued June 10.
Kansas, however, showed a drop in the good-to-excellent condition rating,
with just 47% of the winter wheat crop rated good to excellent, down from 49%
from last week.
The USDA said 75% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was headed, up from 64% last
week and down from the average of 84%.

Spring Wheat

The U.S. spring wheat crop was 93% emerged, up from 76% the previous week
and above the five-year average of 90%.
“(The emergence) is right on par,” said Karlin.
The USDA said the good-to-excellent condition rating for U.S. spring wheat
rose to 57%, up five percentage points from the preceding week.
Karlin singled out the Dakotas as partially responsible for improvement in
condition.
“The Dakotas have had some decent moisture,” said Karlin. “That’s an area
that needed it.”
In North Dakota, the good-to-excellent condition rating for the crop rose to
51%, up two percentage points from the preceding week.”

-By Ryan Davis, Dow Jones Newswires; 312-750-4117

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