OK Everybody….It’s an all sell…..Get in there Mortimer and sell. Sell!

May 15th, 2011
Agrimoney.com – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/news.php?id=3145

Sugar market to return to surplus – and stay there

By Agrimoney.com – Published 13/05/2011

The sugar market is unlikely to return for at least the next two seasons to the kind of deficits which sent prices to multi-decade highs, the International Sugar Organisation said, as it joined a rash of observers on market forecasts.

Sugar production will exceed consumption “more than 3m tonnes” in 2011-12, the influential intergovernmental group said in its first forecast for the season.

And the ISO forecast a further “modest” surplus, of 1m-1.5m tonnes, for 2012-13, despite expecting a slowdown in growth in Brazil, the top producer, where cane yields are suffering “due to a further ageing of the cane [and an] increase in harvest mechanization”.

The prospects of continued world surpluses meant that “at present, the possibility of the return of the large scale deficit seen by the world sugar market at the end of the previous decade looks rather remote”.

On ISO estimates, which are based strictly on an October-to-September crop year, the world sugar production deficit totalled 15m tonnes over 2008-09 and 2009-10.

Data torrent

The ISO’s forecast comes amid a rash of sugar data, with Kingsman, the Swiss-based analysis group, on Thursday near-doubling its forecast for the 2011-12 surplus, pegging it at 10.575m tonnes. Kingsman uses an April-to-March crop year, which avoids cutting through the Brazilian sugar season.

London-based sugar merchant Czarnikow forecast a “return to surplus” without naming a figure.

Also on Friday, the Indian Sugar Mills Association cut its estimate for 2010-11 output in India, the second-ranked producer, by 800,000 tonnes to 24.2m tonnes.

Late on Thursday Brazilian industry association Unica revealed a 69% slump to 795,000 tonnes in Brazil’s production so far this season, a decline reflecting a weaker sugar content in cane, besides the lack of crop left uncut from the previous harvest, as there was a year ago.

The ISO estimated world consumption in 2011-12 growing by 3.7m tonnes to 169.8m tonnes, but production rising by 3.4m tonnes in Brazil, and by “not less than” 1.5m tonnes overall in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine.

© Agrimoney 2010

 

Cotton may be set for ‘another bullish scenario’

May 12th, 2011
Agrimoney.com – http://www.agrimoney.com/news/news.php?id=3136
Cotton may be set for ‘another bullish scenario’
By Agrimoney.com – Published 12/05/2011
Analysts have rated cotton as emerging among the best-supported crops, in pricing terms, from a slew of key US data, with Rabobank saying the fibre may witness “another bullish scenario”.

The US Department of Agriculture, in its first estimates for 2011-12 crops released on Wednesday, pegged world output at 124.7m bales, a rise of 8.8%, enough to return the market to a production surplus and ease a squeeze on supplies which drove prices to record highs.

The data, reflecting a forecast of a record harvest in India, the second-ranked producer, fuelled a modest sell-off in New York futures which continued in the current session when New York’s July contract fell 2.1% to 147.22 cents a pound, well below the record 227 cents a pound for a spot contract reached in February.

The new crop December lot shed 2.2% to 122.50 cents a pound.

Drought losses

However, a number of analysts questioned a downbeat interpretation of the data, given that the forecast included an estimate of hefty losses among US farmers to adverse weather, which has bought flooding to some areas of the South, besides drought to Texas, the top producing state.

The USDA forecast the domestic crop coming in marginally below last year’s, despite a 16.4% rise in sowings, citing “above-average abandonment and slightly below-average yields due to severe drought conditions in the south west”.

The drop means the US, the top cotton exporter by a margin, will “not be able to make up any potential production shortfalls elsewhere”, as it has done this season, Rabobank said.

“In our view, the supply and demand outlook remains tight in the new season. Due to low inventories, if production estimates are not achieved, a return to another bullish scenario appears likely.”

‘Particularly bullish’

And the bank was supported by other analysts. Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia termed the estimates “somewhat bullish” for new crop cotton.

World cotton stocks still looked set end 2011-12 “relatively tight”, at 40% of consumption, compared with a 55% figure in 2008-09.

Australia & New Zealand Bank said that “the report for cotton was particularly bullish”.

“Given dry conditions in the US, the USDA is now projecting essentially no growth in US harvested cotton acreage on last year,” the bank said.

“Global 2011-12 forecasts were also positive, with the USDA increasing mill use by 3m bales while only projecting production higher by 8.7% year on year.”

The USDA estimates were also more downbeat, in production terms, than those last week from the International Cotton Advisory Committee, which estimated world output rising by more than 11%, to 127m bales.

 

Investors pull money from commodity- sector funds

May 10th, 2011

FUNDWATCH

May 6, 2011, 3:46 p.m. EDT

Investors pull money from commodity-

sector funds

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — After an epic selloff in commodities this week, it’s hardly astounding that investors pulled money out of commodity-sector funds in droves. But what is surprising is that those fund outflows occurred before the worst of the crash.

The Lehman Brothers building is pictured in New York September 15, 2008. Stunned and angry, Lehman Brothers' employees packed their bags at company headquarters in New York, with some bitterness over the 158-year-old company's failure aimed at Chief Executive Richard Fuld. That crisis and others are now in the past, writes MarketWatch's Dave Callaway, and investors are intent on reclaiming losses. Attendees at a recent Investing Insights gathering shared ideas for making money and rebuilding portfolios.

During the week ended May 4, commodity- and energy-sector funds posted big outflows, putting an end to weeks of healthy commodity-sector-fund inflows as traders fretted over the potential for a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, according to a report from EPFR Global Friday.

“Investors had booked some serious profits in commodities that were long overdue,” said Brad Durham, managing director at EPFR Global, in emailed comments. “The parabolic gains in some commodities were clearly overextended. We’ll see if they recover and continue their onward march.”

The commodity-sector-fund flow data cover a period before Friday’s better-than-expected U.S. jobs data appeared to improve investor sentiment, and also before Thursday’s selloff in energy and precious-metals futures. Commodities, however, had already been suffering from steep declines that began at the start of the week.

On Thursday, crude-oil futures (NEW:CLM11)  sank nearly 9%, while gold (COMMODITIES:GCM11)  dropped more than 2% and silver (COMMODITIES:SIN11)   slumped 8%.

Commodities continue downtrend

Paul Vigna reports on the latest in the week’s commodity-market selloff.

“The robust inflows enjoyed by commodity-sector funds in recent weeks came to an abrupt halt in early May as investors scrambled to book recent gains before they evaporated,” the EPFR report said.

“Redemptions, spearheaded by institutional investors, hit their highest weekly total on record,” it said. Weekly data go back to the fourth quarter of 2000, according to EPFR, which provides fund-flow and asset-allocation data to financial institutions.

Investors pulled $1.47 billion out of the commodity-sector funds EPFR tracked during the week ending May 4. That’s in sharp contrast to a week earlier, when investors deposited a net $961 million.

At the center of the action were funds focusing on gold and precious metals, the report said, with “concerns that prices have climbed too far given added weight by weaker macroeconomic data.”

Energy-sector funds also took a hit from concerns of slowing demand, with more than $1 billion pulled out from those funds during the week ending May 4.

‘Profit taking’

“The outflow is significant, but getting less unusual given the growing role of [exchange-traded funds] that allow investors to hop in and out a lot quicker than they used to,” Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR Global, said in emailed comments.

‘The outflow is significant, but getting less unusual given the growing role of ETFs

that allow investors to hop in and out a lot quicker than they used to.’ Cameron Brandt, EPFR Global”

“It may well mean profit taking, since most of the activity centered around funds — gold and precious metals — that have limited linkage to industry,” he said.

Kevin Kerr, editor of Kerr Commodities Watch, said the fund outflows shouldn’t shock anyone.

“The funds were heavily into the metals and with these markets going parabolic once the exchange raised the margins on silver so dramatically, it was like opening a dam that needed to let off some pressure — and boy did it ever,” he said.

“Funds will begin buying again at cheaper levels and the pattern will repeat,” Kerr said.

Meanwhile, overall flows into all equity funds and all bond funds remained positive during the week ended May 4, the EPFR report said, with equity funds absorbing $4.7 billion, including the $1.2 billion moved into emerging-markets equity funds, while bond funds took in $4 billion.

“Behind those numbers was a shift that favored defensive sectors, some diversified fund groups and [exchange-traded funds] over actively managed funds,” Brandt said in the report.

The inflows to emerging-markets stock funds marked a sixth straight weekly climb, but the figure was below the inflow of $1.8 billion reported for the week that ended April 27, data showed.

 

China’s real-estate developers struggle with debt

May 9th, 2011

From Marketwatch.com

 

May 9, 2011, 4:03 a.m. EDT

China’s real-estate developers struggle

with debt

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) —The debt carried by China’s real-estate developers jumped 41% in the March-ended year from the same period 12 months earlier, according to a report by Chinese state media.

Asia Today: inflation in focus

China’s rising wages are propelling global prices higher just as the U.S. prepares to meet Chinese officials and push for faster yuan appreciation.

Debt carried by the nation’s developers was 1.05 trillion yuan ($162 billion), the Xinhua News Agency reported on Monday, citing figures compiled by the Shanghai-based data provider, Wind Information.

The figures were based on the 113 mainland-listed developers and their first-quarter filings.

The value of unsold houses was up 40.2% to CNY903.5 billion, the Xinhua report said.

Average profit was down 4.9% to CNY54.65 billion yuan.

Chinese government measures designed to cool the housing market have made it harder for real-estate companies to replenish their working capital by quickly selling apartments.

Some thoughts on the Death of Osma Bin Laden

May 4th, 2011

While we are all grateful to everyone who helped to hunt down and kill Osama                Bin Laden we must realize what this means for America.

We are now target #1 for them, as we have been for a long time, so nothing is really       different, the stakes may just be higher.   Japan realized this after Pear Harbor…. Admiral Yamamoto is credited with saying “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”   And do I think terrorists have or are very close to have some type of radiological weapons, absolutely, absolutely.  Will they use them?Without a doubt….This is a Jihad, a  Holy War, the unfortunate fact is that we still think limiting gels, and taking off shoes is going to stop this.  It’s not.   A much stronger and fight is required to combat this situation…..I hope the future has an alternate ending but  I am no genius, that’s for sure.   One person who was, Albert Einstein, was  asked about World War III, and what new weapons we would have by then?  In this famous quote he said…. “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

 

As a side note the quote from Yamamoto may never have even been said by him,it’s in a movie, however it was found in his diary supposedly and/or a letter…although neither have ever been produced…Just my disclaimer to all of you SNOPES people out there, you know who you are…lol

A parody of NBC’s Proud as a Peacock

May 2nd, 2011
YouTube Preview Image

An excellent interview with Wall Street for Main Street, Take a listen

March 12th, 2011

Food Prices Around the World

March 4th, 2011

“Everyone knows that the price of food is rising fast, and nearly as many know that the price of rising food falls most harshly upon the poor. It is the poor in any country that have to use the greatest percentage of their disposable income to buy this most basic of all requirements for life. Full bellies, as they say, tend not to make revolutions and once this percentage gets upward of 35% bellies are less and less full and regime change more and more likely.”

Share of Household Spending on Food, 2008 %
United States 6.9
Ireland 7.2
Singapore 8.0
United Arab Emirates 8.7
United Kingdom 8.8
Canada 9.1
Switzerland 10.2
Australia 10.5
Austria 11.1
Germany 11.4
Sweden 11.5
Denmark 11.5
Netherlands 11.5
Finland 11.9
New Zealand 12.1
Hong Kong, China 12.2
Qatar 12.7
Norway 12.9
Belgium 13.0
Spain 13.2
France 13.5
Greece 14.0
Malaysia 14.0
Japan 14.2
Italy 14.2
Kuwait 14.5
Bahrain 14.5
Estonia 14.6
Slovenia 15.0
South Korea 15.1
Portugal 15.6
Czech Republic 15.6
Hungary 16.3
Slovakia 16.6
Israel 17.7
Bulgaria 18.2
Uruguay 18.5
Ecuador 19.0
Latvia 19.0
South Africa 19.8
Argentina 20.3
Poland 20.3
Lithuania 21.8
Chile 23.3
Saudi Arabia 23.7
Mexico 24.0
Taiwan 24.0
Turkey 24.4
Brazil 24.7
Thailand 24.8
Costa Rica 25.7
Croatia 25.8
Iran 25.9
Turkmenistan 27.1
Colombia 27.6
Russia 28.0
Bolivia 28.2
Peru 29.0
Venezuela 29.1
Dominican Republic 29.2
Bosnia-Herzegovina 31.1
Macedonia 31.5
China 32.9
Romania 34.3
Kazakhstan 34.9
Uzbekistan 35.1
India 35.4
Guatemala 35.5
Tunisia 35.7
Philippines 36.7
Vietnam 38.1
Egypt 38.1
Cameroon 38.4
Nigeria 39.9
Morocco 40.4
Jordan 40.7
Georgia 40.7
Ukraine 42.1
Indonesia 43.0
Belarus 43.2
Algeria 43.8
Kenya 44.9
Pakistan 45.5
Azerbaijan 46.9
Source: USDA

MP: As much as Americans might complain about rising food prices in the U.S. (even though annual CPI food inflation hasn’t been above 2% for almost two years), we’ve got the most affordable food on the planet as a share of income (see chart above). And compared to previous years, today’s Americans have the most affordable food in

Clearly everyone around the world is getting squeezed by higher food prices and energy prices, and the situation is likely to get a lot worse before it gets better. Here at CW we will continue to look for opportunities to take advantage of pricing that gets too out of whack in the grains and energy either on the upside or the downside. Speaking of energy I have been getting quite a few emails asking about natural gas and is this a good time to get in, and why aren’t we going back into crude oil?

USA Today quoting Kevin Kerr on China and Grains

February 23rd, 2011

China’s grain demand should boost U.S. exports
By Kathy Chu, USA TODAY

Even as its economy cools, China’s demand for imported grain is likely to surge this year, providing a boon to the U.S. and other exporting nations.

This week, China reported that strong imports had sharply narrowed its January trade surplus to $6.45 billion from $13.1 billion in December.

That reflects the country’s growing appetite for commodities and other goods.

China is one of the largest metals and energy consumers in the world. It’s also a top importer of U.S. agricultural products.

In China, “strong imports-growth momentum is supported by strong domestic demand,” Goldman Sachs economists Yu Song and Helen Qiao wrote in a report Monday.

Many analysts expect China’s robust appetite for corn, wheat and soy to expand in 2011 as the country grapples with severe droughts in the north. Corn and soy are primarily used for animal feed, which is in high demand as incomes rise and people consume more meat.

“At the end of the day, (China) needs these commodities because of the population’s growth,” says Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International.

Steel and iron — whose prices have soared amid China’s building boom — might slip if the country’s property bubble bursts, he says.

But overall, China’s long-term appetite for commodities of all kinds will be sustained by its massive transportation, housing and infrastructure projects, along with the needs of its up-and-coming middle class.

In the 24 months ended in January, the International Monetary Fund’s primary commodity index, which measures the average price for commodities such as energy, grains and industrial materials, has soared 79.5%. Prices for cotton and copper have hit records recently, in part due to high demand from emerging markets such as China.
Still, China’s measures to cool its economy could crimp the country’s imports short-term. The fear is, if the economy slows, China won’t need the same amount of commodities.

“I don’t see a collapse in commodity demand, but some moderation is possible” from the last two years’ healthy pace, says Jian Chang, China economist for Barclays Capital.

Food Fear At Home

February 23rd, 2011

Food Fears in America

An open letter appeared on the Farm and Ranch Freedom Alliance founded and run by Judith McGeary to save family farms in the US [1, 2]. The letter, written by Don Huber, professor emeritus at Purdue University, to Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, warns of a pathogen “new to science” discovered by “a team of senior plant and animal scientists”. Huber says it should be treated as an “emergency’’, as it could result in “a collapse of US soy and corn export markets and significant disruption of domestic food and feed supplies.”
The letter appeared to have been written before Vilsack announced his decision to authorize unrestricted commercial planting of GM alfalfa on 1 February, in the hope of convincing the Secretary of Agriculture to impose a moratorium instead on deregulation of Roundup Ready (RR) crops.

The new pathogen appears associated with serious pervasive diseases in plants – sudden death syndrome in soybean and Goss’ wilt in corn – but its suspected effects on livestock is alarming. Huber refers to “recent reports of infertility rates in dairy heifers of over 20%, and spontaneous abortions in cattle as high as 45%.”

This could be the worst nightmare of genetic engineering that some scientists including me have been warning for years [3] (see Genetic Engineering Dream or Nightmare, ISIS publication): the unintended creation of new pathogens through assisted horizontal gene transfer and recombination.

Huber writes in closing: “I have studied plant pathogens for more than 50 years. We are now seeing an unprecedented trend of increasing plant and animal diseases and disorders. This pathogen may be instrumental to understanding and solving this problem. It deserves immediate attention with significant resources to avoid a general collapse of our critical agricultural infrastructure.”

Dear Secretary Vilsack:
A team of senior plant and animal scientists have recently brought to my attention the discovery of an electron microscopic pathogen that appears to significantly impact the health of plants, animals, and probably human beings. Based on a review of the data, it is widespread, very serious, and is in much higher concentrations in Roundup Ready (RR) soybeans and corn-suggesting a link with the RR gene or more likely the presence of Roundup. This organism appears NEW to science!
This is highly sensitive information that could result in a collapse of US soy and corn export markets and significant disruption of domestic food and feed supplies. On the other hand, this new organism may already be responsible for significant harm (see below). My colleagues and I are therefore moving our investigation forward with speed and discretion, and seek assistance from the USDA and other entities to identify the pathogen’s source, prevalence, implications, and remedies.

We are informing the USDA of our findings at this early stage, specifically due to your pending decision regarding approval of RR alfalfa. Naturally, if either the RR gene or Roundup itself is a promoter or co-factor of this pathogen, then such approval could be a calamity. Based on the current evidence, the only reasonable action at this time would be to delay deregulation at least until sufficient data has exonerated the RR system, if it does.

For the past 40 years, I have been a scientist in the professional and military agencies that evaluate and prepare for natural and manmade biological threats, including germ warfare and disease outbreaks. Based on this experience, I believe the threat we are facing from this pathogen is unique and of a high risk status. In layman’s terms, it should be treated as an emergency.

A diverse set of researchers working on this problem have contributed various pieces of the puzzle, which together presents the following disturbing scenario:

Unique Physical Properties

This previously unknown organism is only visible under an electron microscope (36,000X), with an approximate size range equal to a medium size virus. It is able to reproduce and appears to be a micro-fungal-like organism. If so, it would be the first such micro-fungus ever identified. There is strong evidence that this infectious agent promotes diseases of both plants and mammals, which is very rare.
Pathogen Location and Concentration
It is found in high concentrations in Roundup Ready soybean meal and corn, distillers meal, fermentation feed products, pig stomach contents, and pig and cattle placentas.
Linked with Outbreaks of Plant Disease
The organism is prolific in plants infected with two pervasive diseases that are driving down yields and farmer income-sudden death syndrome (SDS) in soy, and Goss’ wilt in corn. The pathogen is also found in the fungal causative agent of SDS (Fusarium solani fsp glycines).

Implicated in Animal Reproductive Failure

Laboratory tests have confirmed the presence of this organism in a wide variety of livestock that have experienced spontaneous abortions and infertility. Preliminary results from ongoing research have also been able to reproduce abortions in a clinical setting.
The pathogen may explain the escalating frequency of infertility and spontaneous abortions over the past few years in US cattle, dairy, swine, and horse operations. These include recent reports of infertility rates in dairy heifers of over 20%, and spontaneous abortions in cattle as high as 45%.

For example, 450 of 1,000 pregnant heifers fed wheatlege experienced spontaneous abortions. Over the same period, another 1,000 heifers from the same herd that were raised on hay had no abortions. High concentrations of the pathogen were confirmed on the wheatlege, which likely had been under weed management using glyphosate.

Recommendations

In summary, because of the high titer of this new animal pathogen in Roundup Ready crops, and its association with plant and animal diseases that are reaching epidemic proportions, we request USDA’s participation in a multi-agency investigation, and an immediate moratorium on the deregulation of RR crops until the causal/predisposing relationship with glyphosate and/or RR plants can be ruled out as a threat to crop and animal production and human health.

It is urgent to examine whether the side-effects of glyphosate use may have facilitated the growth of this pathogen, or allowed it to cause greater harm to weakened plant and animal hosts. It is well-documented that glyphosate promotes soil pathogens and is already implicated with the increase of more than 40 plant diseases; it dismantles plant defenses by chelating vital nutrients; and it reduces the bioavailability of nutrients in feed, which in turn can cause animal disorders. To properly evaluate these factors, we request access to the relevant USDA data.

I have studied plant pathogens for more than 50 years. We are now seeing an unprecedented trend of increasing plant and animal diseases and disorders. This pathogen may be instrumental to understanding and solving this problem. It deserves immediate attention with significant resources to avoid a general collapse of our critical agricultural infrastructure.

Sincerely,

COL (Ret.) Don M. Huber
Emeritus Professor, Purdue University
APS Coordinator, USDA National Plant Disease Recovery System (NPDRS)

Kerr Commodities Watch

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