And this one too,

Sugar to Climb Near 24-Year High on India, Brazil (Update1)
By Shruti Date Singh and Thomas Kutty Abraham

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) — No matter what happens in the global economy, sugar demand is about to top production for the first time since 2006, the year prices reached a 24-year peak.

India, the second-biggest grower, will reduce supplies 16 percent next year, shifting to more profitable crops. Brazil, the largest producer, expects to use 57 percent of its cane for ethanol this year, up from 54 percent. Refiners in Europe will process 15 percent less because a 2004 trade ruling bars growers from exporting surpluses.

“The fundamentals for next year are better than in the last 12 months and are the best for market values in the last three seasons,” said Sergey Gudoshnikov, a senior economist for the London-based International Sugar Organization, which represents countries producing 82 percent of the world’s sugar.

The shortfall may make sugar one of the only commodities to continue rallying even as the slowing global economy reduces demand for raw materials from aluminum to oil. Sugar use isn’t affected by price swings in developed countries, while people are eating more sweeteners in China and India, the largest consumer, according to London-based ED&F Man Holdings Ltd.

Sugar on ICE Futures U.S. in New York may jump 28 percent to 18 cents a pound next year from 14.06 cents on Sept. 12, said analyst Jonathan Kingsman in Lausanne, Switzerland, whose firm Kingsman SA advises banks, hedge funds and Fortune 500 companies on commodity purchases. Kona Haque, a commodity strategist at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in London, said the price may reach 20 cents, and Jean Bourlot, a managing director and head of agricultural trading at Morgan Stanley, said it may double in 18 months.

The sweetener traded at 14 cents today in New York.

Commodity Bear Market

The S&P GSCI Index of 24 commodities, after six straight years of gains, plunged 28 percent from a record on July 3 and slipped into a bear market as global economic growth slowed. Natural gas, silver, crude oil and corn lead the declines.

In the meantime, “crop competition, booming ethanol demand and declining sugar beet areas globally signal higher prices,” London-based Bourlot said in a Sept. 11 telephone interview.

The last time the world consumed more sugar than it produced was in 2006, when the cane crop in Thailand was down for a third straight year and record energy prices boosted demand for alternative fuels. Futures reached 19.73 cents a pound on Feb. 3, 2006, the highest since April 1981.

In the following months, production surged in Brazil and India, sending global sugar inventories to the highest ever. The ISO estimates stockpiles will reach a record 69.2 million metric tons in the year that ends Sept. 30. Sugar prices dropped 20 percent in 2006 and 7.9 percent last year.

Record Inventories

Stockpiles will fall 5.8 percent to 65.2 million tons in the year ending Sept. 30, 2009, the first decline since 2006, according to ISO forecasts. Still, they will be 18 percent higher than in 2006.

“I just don’t think sugar has any business being up over 14 cents,” said Judy Ganes-Chase, a former Merrill Lynch & Co. commodity analyst who runs a consulting firm in Katonah, New York. “We still need to work through that massive glut. The market is more fundamentally justified in the 9-to-11-cent range than the 12-to-14-cent range” for 2009, she said.

Kingsman said the rally will fail if the price of ethanol from sugar cane declines and if the Brazilian currency’s weakness against the dollar encourages exports onto world markets. The ISO says prices may be affected by factors unrelated to supply and demand, from energy use, to food policy and shifts by investors away from commodities.

Production Deficit

Global consumption will increase 2.3 percent to 165.5 million metric tons in the next year, and production will drop 4.4 percent to 161.6 million tons, spurring a shortfall of 3.9 million tons, the ISO said. Czarnikow Group Ltd., a London-based brokerage and consulting firm that has been in the business since 1861, puts the deficit at 3.3 million tons.

Higher prices may boost profits at Brazil’s Cosan SA Industria e Comercio, the world’s biggest sugar-cane processor, and at Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd., India’s largest producer. Costs may rise for buyers such as Nestle SA, the biggest food company.

One reason analysts forecast inventory declines is more of the crop is being used to make ethanol rather than sweetener.

Piracicaba, Brazil-based Cosan is stepping up production of the fuel and expects sugar to stay above 14 cents a pound next year, Chief Financial Officer Paulo Diniz said Sept. 12 on a conference call. The rebounding dollar and rising sugar prices may make Cosan profitable next year, after three straight quarters of losses, Vice Chairman Pedro Mizutani said. Brazil’s real lost all this year’s gains against the U.S. currency.

India Crop Decline

The biggest change in sugar supplies during the coming year will likely be in India. Output will plunge 16 percent to 23.9 million tons from 28.5 million tons as farmers plant more wheat, and a late monsoon may reduce yields in Maharashtra state, the country’s biggest producer, according to the ISO.

“The effective withdrawal of India from the export market is a significant bull factor,” Kingsman said.

India’s exports may plunge more than 78 percent to less than 1 million tons in the coming year, said S.L. Jain, director general of the Indian Sugar Mills Association in New Delhi.

Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd., India’s biggest refiner, bought 30,000 tons of raw sugar from Brazil for arrival in October, Managing Director Narendra Murkumbi said Aug. 27. The Mumbai- based company’s purchase was the first from an overseas supplier in more than two years.

“We may import more raw sugar after December,” Murkumbi said. “Domestic raw material is not available and buying from the spot market in Brazil is more attractive.”

European Output

European production will fall 15 percent to 22.5 million tons in the year starting Oct. 1 from 26.5 million, according to Ratzeburg, Germany-based F.O. Licht, a soft-commodity market researcher. The European Union will produce 14 million tons, about 20 percent less than this year, after the World Trade Organization ruled the 27-nation bloc can’t sell its surplus on the world market because it unfairly profited from subsidies.

Europe will help provide “a more bullish impetus for world sugar prices,” Licht said Sept. 9. “That’s a new phenomenon.”

The U.S., the world’s fifth-biggest sugar producer, will refine 3.5 percent less of the sweetener than previously expected in the year that starts next month, and the decline doesn’t fully reflect the damage caused to crops by Hurricane Gustav, the Agriculture Department said Sept. 12.

Brazil will produce 32.8 million tons of sugar this year, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency. While the estimate is higher than last year’s 31.3 million tons, it’s less than in April as mills turn more cane into fuel.

Ethanol Use

Global ethanol consumption will rise 34 percent to about 65.2 billion liters in 2008, mostly because of the U.S. and Brazil, the biggest producers and users of the alternative fuel, according to the ISO. Crude-oil futures closed at $101.18 a barrel on Sept. 12, up 27 percent from a year earlier, though down from a record $147.27 on July 11. Gasoline closed at $2.7696 a gallon, up 37 percent from a year earlier.

Abah Ofon, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Dubai, said in a Sept. 3 e-mail ethanol demand will boost sugar to an average of 16.2 cents in the second quarter of 2009.

“There’s greater noise in the U.S. about the perceived inflationary impact of corn ethanol,” Ofon said. “There’s going to be a more serious debate on opening up the U.S. market.”

U.S. Tariffs

The U.S., which mainly uses corn to produce ethanol, imposes a tariff of 54 cents a gallon on imports from Brazil.

Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, introduced legislation in June that would avoid penalizing foreign suppliers, including Brazil, and enable U.S. refiners to purchase ethanol no matter where it’s made.

“The demand for inexpensive and climate-friendly ethanol continues to grow as oil and gas prices remain sky-high,” Feinstein said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News.

In July, when the Reuters/Jefferies CRB index dropped 10 percent, “sugar prices bucked the broader commodity direction,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in an Aug. 7 report. “We anticipate recovering crude-oil prices and tighter sugar supply/demand expectations to support” the market, said Goldman, which has a 12-month forecast of 15 cents a pound.

To contact the reporters on this story: Shruti Date Singh in Chicago at ssingh28@bloomberg.net; Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=abuSu7zbzEpg&refer=news

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Farm Report [09-12-08 8:35 AM]

The latest USDA crop numbers are out today and the market is a far cry from just a few months ago. A look at the latest numbers with Kevin Kerr, commodity trader and editor, Global Commodities Alert.

Watch Kevin Here on BNN

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Ike damages 80 percent of homes on Grand Turk
36 minutes ago
PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) — The Turks and Caicos premier says Hurricane Ike has damaged 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk island.
Michael Misick tells The Associated Press by phone that Grand Turk took almost a direct hit and that hundreds of people have lost their roofs. He says people are cowering in closets and under stairwells and are “just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad,” he says.
There are no reports of deaths or injuries, but authorities are now trying to rescue people and get them into shelters.
Ike is now raking Haiti and barreling toward the Bahamas and Cuba as a powerful Category 4 storm.
Misick said Sunday that he will fly to Grand Turk once the weather subsides.

Here’s a sampling of what some folks are saying about farming conditions:
from Ag Web:
9/5 - Huntington County, Indiana: The big rain event on Thursday missed us completely. We got enough to wet the pavement, but not enough to register in the rain gauge. Since August 1, I have received .35″ and the last 3 weeks of July were not much better. The corn is firing 2/3 of the way up the stalk and the beans are dying on the high ground, turning on the average ground and green in the low ground in the same field. I am very worried about the beans. I would guess that there will be few 40 bushel fields around us. I have a 12 variety corn plot and did the Pro Farmer yield formula in it and it went from 150 to 215, but that is in a good section of one of my best fields. I will be surprised if I average 150 over all the fields.

9/5 - East Central Indiana: It appears we are just about safe from frost damage. Most crops will be dead by any frost date due to lack of rain. I traveled through NE Indiana yesterday and it was just as bad if not worse. Talked to some that said Ohio is worse. All that green and yellow on DTN radar for the last 14 hours has added up to .16.

9/5 - West Central Missouri: We started picking some wet corn Monday. Moisture was between 21% and 25%, planted late first week of April, dryland. Average yields around 150 bpa. The rain helped some late planted corn and beans. Overall corn looks good, some yellow spots in the fields where N was lost. The rain is just holding us up now. Irrigated corn looks really good.

9/5 - Central Arkansas: Rainfall totals the last 3 days range from 6 to 11 inches. No where for the water to go. Many rivers expected to reach or slightly exceed flood stage within the next week. Very little crop harvested to date, maybe 10% of the corn where it is normally in the 60% range. Flooding delayed planting this year and now flooding will take out some of what was planted. Been a tough year down “south.”

9/5 - Wright County, Minnesota: The corn crop is wilting and dying in the field. We need rain badly although it is probably too late for this years crop. It is drier here than the drought monitor shows.

9/5 - Jasper County, Missouri (Southwest Corner): Corn harvest underway. Looks like yield could range from 145-200 plus on dryland corn. Most corn was way late. Early crop looks excellent. Beans have a ways to go but have had optimal growing conditions. Sunflowers excellent too. I think we’ve had at least 55 in of rain this year but know how you guys feel were it isn’t raining. Everything burnt up 2 years ago. Amway gotta look forward to higher inputs and lower price

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Take a look at Part I of my interview form the NYSE with Mike Norman…And then read below for my latest thoughts on the latest from the folks at RTA!
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=hard+assets&utm_content=Hard+Assets&utm_campaign=Hard+Assets

So just a quick update from here at the epicenter of commodities trading, Chicago. I will be on the floor of the CBOT most of the day and trying to get updates on the grains and other markets. The rain in the Midwest is easing some immediate concerns but overall I think the crop is going to support higher prices. A note on the most recent alert from the folks at RTA. Now I suggested about 2 weeks ago here on my blog to cover the short side of both the gold and bean oil, bean oil was a no brainer but gold did add some more significant cost, but not much. Glad they have now advised people to cover those short legs. Problem is whomever is writing the issues now didn’t really explain it well. As I visit with many of the brokers here in Chicago many of them told me that they got a ton of calls asking how this all works and the ramifications of covering the short legs.

I saw my friend Bob Miller at Foremost Trading yesterday and his sons Scott and Mark and he explained it very well to his clients…exactly as RTA should have but didn’t of course. Associate Editors are not traders, I am sorry but you can’t replace years of trading experience by making a few phone calls, that’s pretty obvious. Anyway, all that aside, covering the short legs of the spreads is exactly what should be done. Here is Bob’s explanation on the pro’s and con’s of covering the short legs, it spells it out very well. This is provided as a courtesy as i have nothing to do with RTA anymore and I know many of you are confused with the way Agora Financial has handled this and why they don’t have a new trader, so check here form time to time and you can get my opinion on these trades until their closed. Better yet join us over at GCA and I will be following all these markets there.

From Bob Miller for my former RTA readers…
RTA Alert: ½ Bean Oil spread and ½ of the Gold spread (legging out) exit fill report. 9-3-08 update.

This email is for those who are Trading the RTA newsletter with us at Foremost Trading. Excuse the “bulk nature” of this email, however by this method I can let you know what has happened with the order(s) received from RTA newsletter.

Hello RTA Traders.
Today we received this RTA alert which read…
Urgent Trading Alert – Buy-to-Close Gold and Soybean Oil

Action to take: call your commodity options broker and say “I have two orders for you, First I want to buy-to-close the short leg (the 1050 call) of the December 2008 Gold (GCZ8) call spread at 310pts ($310) or better Good Till Cancelled (GTC).

Second, I want to buy-to-close the short leg (the 70 call) of the December 2008 Soybean Oil (BOZ8) call spread at 40pts ($240) or better Good Till Cancelled (GTC).”

We received this RTA trade alert and acted on it with a fill in the gold at the trade alert price of 310. The bean oil alert fill was at a average price of about 32.

I am sending this email to you that the bean oil trade and sending again this same email to those of you that have the gold spread. So if you receive this only once or if you receive it twice you will understand why.

Here are some pointers that I want to make about these trades…

When a bull call spread is entered, the trade has a maximum potential. The full profit potential is the value of the difference between the strike prices minus the cost of the spread. This maximum potential is only possible if the underlying futures contract is at or above the higher strike price of the option spread. The reason for a bull call spread like the gold or soybean oil spread trade is very simple. The outright option is too expensive. Hence a spread that is affordable. The price you pay for this is a maximum profit cap.

With today’s exit of ½ of the spread we now have a new picture. Here are some of the issues (costs and benefits) if exiting ½ of the trade that was issued today.

First. By exiting the short side of the spread you now have locked in much of the profit on the short side of the spread. That’s good.

Second. This did have a cost. On the bean oil the cost was about $190 per spread. That’s the price paid to exit the short today on the Bean oil 70 call. On the Gold it was $310 to exit the short 1050 call. This cost is an additional expense to the original trade. For this cost you now have a additional benefit which is…

Third. By exiting the short side of the spread like we did today, the maximum profit potential has now been removed. Now I have to tell you that even though the maximum profit potential has been lifted, we need to be realistic. These original spread trades that have now become an outright long call option have a long way to go to recover the open loss that they have. This brings me to the next benefit of exiting the short side of the spread trade as we did today.

Fourth. When the spread is in place, the spread difference moves at a slower rate. When the market is dropping or when the market is rallying. By exiting the short side of the trade which we took in a nice profit today on that half of the spread, we now have a better chance to recover the open loss that we have on the remaining half of the spread trade. Exiting the short side of the spread is like lifting the anchor on a boat. The option price can now move much more rapidly on any up move in the Gold and Soybean oil market.

We have nearly three months left before expiration of these options. Anything can happen. Hopefully the market will bless this remaining half of the trade.

Have a good evening,

Bob Miller

I want to also remind you that you can always change any of the instructions that you have with me at any time on the Auto Trade application of handling of your orders.

Please note. I try to be very accurate with the details of reporting to you. This email is not the official trade report to you. The official report is your brokerage statement from our clearing firm. That is sent by email the next day. You should have this tomorrow morning. If you should get a statement and you are not sure about the details of the trade, or you do not get a statement from the clearing firm on this trade please email me. I will look into it and reply as soon as I can.

Foremost Trading LLC.

Toll Free: 1-888-262-6455
International: 1-630-463-4510
email: BobMiller@TheFuturesBroker.com

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I got a blistering email from an oil guy today criticizing my comments on TV last night…Good for him..I am certainly know petro-logisitcs expert so constructive criticism is always welcome…By the way I did know LOOP means offshore oil port…just said it wrong on TV….TV is not very forgiving by the way…lol It’s live and when you say something that’s it, you usually only get 15 seconds to say it by the way…any way here are the viewers comments, and I would like to officially say, I stand corrected. Thank you and I welcome being corrected any time. I certainly am the first to admit, I do not know everything…My advice…Be afraid of those people who claim they do know everything…

Here is that viewers email, name witheld:

Hello,

In a recent CNN report you made several horrible mistakes. First off L.O.O.P. stands for Louisiana Offshore Oil Port NOT Louisiana Offshore Platform. Second, you made the statement “those refineries are not as easily fixed as platforms and pipelines.” I’ve work for the largest survey company in the world, and have been in Gulf of Mexico for several years and I can say without at doubt that it is MUCH easier to fix anything on land than several miles offshore; obviously you don’t understand offshore logistics. I will agree with the fact that damage to a refinery has more impact on production than damage to an individual platform, because of the obvious fact that it takes many production platforms to fill the capacity of one refinery, but your message is wrong.

As far as your comments on “anchoring rigs down” I think you should know that only a small fraction of offshore assets are anchor rigs which are actually anchored down. Yes it’s true that the MMS now requires 4 additional storm anchors, but you should know that anchor rigs are used to drill for new wells (not in production) and do not account for any current US production. If several deepwater anchor rigs were lost it would impact future production and the “chicken little” oil speculation market.

Basically the end result of what you have said is correct (this time) and for your business that’s what counts, but I feel in many ways you are dead wrong in your means by which you arrive at your results, and that can cause erratic results in your predictions over the long term. I’ve done extensive GOM repair work after several hurricanes and if you want to know what is really going on you need to get a better ear on the ground. If you hear that a few satellite platforms are destroyed you might want to know what their true impact on production is before you buy stock in their competitor. Regardless of the discipline, there is a difference between a college textbook and the real world; if your job is oil, please learn the real world. C.E.

Dear CE:
Well thank you for educating me…No logisitcs is not my job…I am a commodities trader….I stand corrected and will be happy to post your comments on my blog…..I did go to college but more importantly I also put my boots on the ground to see things for myself, I have been doing that for 20 years, and still I make mistakes…TV also doesn’t give you the luxury of often explaining in detail unfortunately….About 15 seconds is what you get and someone is screaming in your ear to hurry up as you are trying to answer……Anyway, thank you for correcting me and please do anytime,I welcome it. and all of your points are very valid. best, Kevin Kerr

Ok well here I am talking to my friends at Squawk Box this morning so critique away!

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Well thankfully it looks like Louisiana dodged the major catastrophic bullet…. More storms on the way though, so I wouldn’t let my guard down just yet! Still the commodities are getting hit hard on some kind of relief rally, not sure that will continue, but it sure is offering some great trading opportunities on both sides of these markets…

Here I talked to Fox Business last night about it as damage reports began to come in…

And here check out my article in this months Trading Strategies at MarketWatch.
http://www.marketwatch.com/newscommentary/tradingstrategies

I will also have updates on my former trading services option positions here later today too…Please check back!

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Plus…..My former RTA members who are long bean oil, may find this story from Bloomberg interesting. Read on:

Dalian Soybeans Advance as Festival Boosts Vegetable Oil Demand

Courtesy of bloomberg.com
By William Bi

“Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) — Soybeans climbed in Dalian on expectation that demand for vegetable oil in China, the world’s biggest consumer, will increase ahead of holidays, spurring processors to raise crushing. Soybean oil also gained.

Prices advanced before the mid-autumn festival this month, when Chinese people exchange gifts of vegetable-oil-rich moon cakes and bottles of cooking oil. Regional vegetable oil prices for immediate delivery gained between 100 yuan to 200 yuan ($15- $30) a metric ton today, Tommy Xiao, analyst at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., said.

“Demand will typically strengthen at this time of year,” and that’s helping reduce some excess domestic supplies of soybean oil, said Nie Ben, manager at Shanghai Mainland Futures Co. by phone from Dalian. Mid-autumn festival is celebrated on Sept. 15. It is followed at the end of the month by a week-long National Day holiday.

Soybeans for January delivery on the Dalian Commodity Exchange gained 74 yuan, or 1.7 percent, to close at 4,337 yuan a ton. January-delivery soybean oil rose 158 yuan a ton, or 1.7 percent, to 9,278 yuan.

The Chicago Board of Trade is closed today for the U.S. Labor Day holiday.

Zen-Noh, Japan’s largest corn buyer, suspended the operation of its grain export facility in the U.S. Gulf as Hurricane Gustav approaches the region, threatening shipments from the world’s biggest exporter. China currently imports little corn from the U.S., according to customs data.

“I don’t think it’ll have much of an impact” on U.S. soybean exports, said Phil Laney, China country director of the American Soybean Association’s international marketing. Shutting the elevators is normal, and there are few soybeans being handled because most crops haven’t been harvested, he said.”

Today’s gain wasn’t likely related to a gain in the crude oil price, which jumped as much as 2.2 percent to $118 a barrel, said Wang Lin, manager at Cofco Futures Co. in Dalian. “The domestic market is waiting for more information from the U.S. market,” when trading resumes tomorrow, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: William Bi in Beijing at

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Check out this rig map form Oil drum….Awesome map…What scares me most? LOOP terminal dead center. If this facility takes a direct hit all bets are off. The look at all the refineries in the firing line…Check out my blog www.kerrtrade.com

Well we are seeing oil rally 150 points right now and gold and silver are also up solidly. It looks as though Gustav will hit as a category 4, intense winds reports from rigs and platforms are coming in. Tune in tonight at 11pm est to CNN network (not headline news)…Kevin will discuss the impact on energy prices and infrastructure with Rick Sanchez. We will continue to monitor the situation closely here at www.kerrtrade.com and www.kerralert.com

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Make no mistake, these are killer storms! I am mostly monitoring for any damage to the L.O.O.P. (Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform) of one of those terminals is damaged, all bets are off. And look at all these facilities right in the path of destruction!

Oil starts trading this evening for the electronic session and will shut down again for the Labor Day holiday…Can you say volatility!

Check back here later for my video blog on the situation and any updates….Stay safe!

From Matt Simmons (Twilight in the Desert author and former energy advisor to George W Bush): “LOOP (Louisiana Offshore Oil Platform) is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be unloaded onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lengthy timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim.”

We get about 1.2 million b/d +/- 10% of crude imports through Loop. However, they also have upwards of 54 million barrels of storage and will be pumping to their customers for quite some time with or without new tankers, presuming the refineries are open. When/if the SPR gets going, it can release up to 4 million barrels a day.
And this note from Black Bear of Jurojinweekly.com

“My take: A lot of the oil infrastructure in Energy Alley has been reinforced since Katrina/Rita. The post-Katrina rig protection modifications will soon be tested. If the infrastructure is damaged, that could affect your prices at the pump. A note: After Katrina, people stopped driving and stayed home to watch New Orleans disaster-porn on the TV, significantly reducing gasoline demand and sending prices lower. That’s right – hurricanes can drive prices down as well as up. So I guess my “forecast” is for more volatility.”

Black Bear

Maybe, but damage to oil terminals and refineries is really the worry here…Platforms not so much. Thanks Black Bear!

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And Hannah isn’t far behind and building strength.

I will be monitoring the situation closely and will be talking to my sources in Louisiana and Texas all weekend. Also, I am monitoring Hannah and this storm could most certainly hit Florida hard, the citrus industry could be in big trouble.

Be sure to check back Sunday and Monday for my detailed updates as news of damage comes in. REMINDER. The energy markets and I believe the metals too, will open for trading Sunday night electronically, but will not be open Monday!

Many people do not know this, BE AWARE and be cautious if trading Sunday night like me! Our prayers are with everyone in the region, BE SAFE, EVACUATE!

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