RSS
Oil’s Well that Ends Well….?
I got a blistering email from an oil guy today criticizing my comments on TV last night…Good for him..I am certainly know petro-logisitcs expert so constructive criticism is always welcome…By the way I did know LOOP means offshore oil port…just said it wrong on TV….TV is not very forgiving by the way…lol It’s live and when you say something that’s it, you usually only get 15 seconds to say it by the way…any way here are the viewers comments, and I would like to officially say, I stand corrected. Thank you and I welcome being corrected any time. I certainly am the first to admit, I do not know everything…My advice…Be afraid of those people who claim they do know everything…
Here is that viewers email, name witheld:
Hello,
In a recent CNN report you made several horrible mistakes. First off L.O.O.P. stands for Louisiana Offshore Oil Port NOT Louisiana Offshore Platform. Second, you made the statement “those refineries are not as easily fixed as platforms and pipelines.” I’ve work for the largest survey company in the world, and have been in Gulf of Mexico for several years and I can say without at doubt that it is MUCH easier to fix anything on land than several miles offshore; obviously you don’t understand offshore logistics. I will agree with the fact that damage to a refinery has more impact on production than damage to an individual platform, because of the obvious fact that it takes many production platforms to fill the capacity of one refinery, but your message is wrong.
As far as your comments on “anchoring rigs down” I think you should know that only a small fraction of offshore assets are anchor rigs which are actually anchored down. Yes it’s true that the MMS now requires 4 additional storm anchors, but you should know that anchor rigs are used to drill for new wells (not in production) and do not account for any current US production. If several deepwater anchor rigs were lost it would impact future production and the “chicken little” oil speculation market.
Basically the end result of what you have said is correct (this time) and for your business that’s what counts, but I feel in many ways you are dead wrong in your means by which you arrive at your results, and that can cause erratic results in your predictions over the long term. I’ve done extensive GOM repair work after several hurricanes and if you want to know what is really going on you need to get a better ear on the ground. If you hear that a few satellite platforms are destroyed you might want to know what their true impact on production is before you buy stock in their competitor. Regardless of the discipline, there is a difference between a college textbook and the real world; if your job is oil, please learn the real world. C.E.
Dear CE:
Well thank you for educating me…No logisitcs is not my job…I am a commodities trader….I stand corrected and will be happy to post your comments on my blog…..I did go to college but more importantly I also put my boots on the ground to see things for myself, I have been doing that for 20 years, and still I make mistakes…TV also doesn’t give you the luxury of often explaining in detail unfortunately….About 15 seconds is what you get and someone is screaming in your ear to hurry up as you are trying to answer……Anyway, thank you for correcting me and please do anytime,I welcome it. and all of your points are very valid. best, Kevin Kerr
Ok well here I am talking to my friends at Squawk Box this morning so critique away!
September 2nd, 2008 at 11:24 am
[...] Original post by Kevin [...]
September 3rd, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Kevin the world is full of self-centered nerds, don’t take heed of them. And email communication turns nice people in potential killers, because of lack of inhibitions and emotional feedback.
When a couple of months ago, with oil at 140, you said “it will go to 105″, I though “Kevin is weird”. At that time nobody would dare such a prophecy. This kind of skills is not common, most people just go with the herd. “Chapeau”, as they say in France.