RSS
The Race for Farmers is On!
Those of you who have been with me a couple of years know I usually try to get out to see some farmers this time of year, and 2008 is no exception. The unusually wet planting conditions have pushed back planting, and an exact date to get all those crops in the ground still seems unclear.
You see, the wet, muddy conditions and continued rain make it next to impossible to get equipment in the fields. Also, farmers run the risk of putting seeds in too early and, basically, losing the crop. The situation is pretty grave this year, as demand for all the grains is very high, as are the costs to plant them. The hope seems to be that we will have another year like last year and Mother Nature will be kind. It may not end up that way.
Real crop conditions, farmers’ and ranchers’ sentiments and concerns and good old home cooking are not things you can get sitting at a desk in New York or Washington, D.C. Nope, you have to go to the fields and see for yourself.
When you’re standing out in a cold, wet, muddy cornfield with no corn in it, but plenty of standing water, you get a sense of what we may be facing. In an effort to bring you the best firsthand information for your trading decisions, I travel far and wide to meet directly with everyone from farmers and ranchers in the Midwest to fund traders in the Middle East. I just returned from the Singapore Plantation Investment Asia conference, as you know.
I will be heading to Minnesota on the 17th for a few days of visiting farms, hog operations and even an under-construction ethanol plant in Janesville, Minn. I am taking my family along, since my mother-in-law is in town from Estonia and has never met my family in Minnesota. That will be very nice.
I plan to interview as many farmers as I can and get a real sense of what they are thinking, not only about this crop year, but also about the next five. Doing this in past years has proven very valuable. After all, I knew corn would be going to $6 three years ago largely because of what I found out by visiting farms and seeing what was going on long before the ethanol boom landed on the front page of Barron’s.
The other thing that has proved very valuable is my farmers/traders network. I have several loyal RTA readers who travel the highways and byways of the Midwest and see crop conditions firsthand during growing season. Best of all, they let me know. This is far better than anything Washington and the USDA put out, and it’s unbiased. Sure, it’s not scientific or regulated by the government. It also doesn’t cost anything… all reasons why it works.
Here is a report I just got from “John,” one of my road warriors:
“Did a drive around central Illinois yesterday… Peoria to Bloomington, up to the Quad Cities and then back to Peoria. Looked at about 265 miles of crop fields. One 50-acre plot had been aerated. That was all. LOTS of fields with standing water. Also lots of washed-out areas and grass waterways covered in mud. The bottom ground told tales of high water from the corn stalk residue all washed to the farthest side, away from the creek. Some fields had large chunks of trees resting hundreds of feet from the banks of the creek or river. More rain is in our forecast for tomorrow.
“Have a good one. I’ll be on the road twice next week. Also… while in Bloomington, I saw diesel fuel for $4.03 and $4.08… OUCH!” Keep them coming, John. If you are in the Farm Belt and would like to send updates all during growing season for your fellow RTA readers and myself, please send them to kevinscottkerr@mac.com . We all really appreciate it. And if you are a farmer, rancher, elevator operator or farm equipment dealer in Minnesota or possibly even Wisconsin, please let me know, as I would love to meet and speak with you during my visit. Just e-mail me at the above address.
So when I get back from the farm tour, there is no rest for the weary. I will be headed down to Baltimore for one day for our editorial meeting — can’t do both days, because I have to get back to New York to prepare to fly to Abu Dhabi and Dubai.
As I said, there is no limit on where I will go to bring you the most cutting-edge information, contacts and trading advice. More on my trip to the Middle East soon.
